The latest annual report from the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) was officially published on the 28th, stating that China is becoming the 'top threat' to the United States by attempting to replace the U.S. in military, economic, and diplomatic dominance. The Taiwan issue is one of the focuses of the report, with the CIA speculating that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) may further increase pressure on Taiwan within the year.
France's 'L'Express' was the first to reveal some of the content. The report was completed in March, marking the first CIA report during Trump's second term, showcasing a clear political tone and policy shift. The report begins by emphasizing domestic issues, including the fentanyl epidemic, illegal immigration, and border crimes, highlighting the attention given to domestic matters.
However, in terms of external threats, the CIA still clearly identifies China and Russia as the main adversaries, particularly China, which has become a rare bipartisan consensus as the 'top threat.' China is promoting a cross-field national strategy with the goal of replacing the U.S. as the most influential nation by 2030. Militarily, the PLA is accelerating modernization and establishing joint combat units, intending to prevent U.S. military intervention in Pacific conflicts.
The report mentions that space will be the new frontier for future wars, and China's military space layout has already taken shape, posing a substantial challenge to the United States. The PLA not only has the capability to attack U.S. and allied satellites but has also deployed a series of land-based anti-space weapon systems with the aim of disrupting, paralyzing, or even destroying enemy satellites.
Regarding Taiwan, China also demonstrates strong ambition. The PLA may strengthen pressure on Taiwan within the year, and China's active assertion of sovereignty in the South and East China Seas has already heightened tensions, potentially leading to broader conflicts. The CIA assesses that the PLA is 'steadily but unevenly developing' the military capability to seize Taiwan and prevent U.S. intervention, and is using world-leading artificial intelligence technology to launch information attacks.