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US President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Thursday. According to Hong Kong media, China will treat Trump with a high level of protocol, but holds no unrealistic illusions. In addition, some Chinese scholars predict there is still a chance for substantive progress on economic and trade issues between China and the US.
Ming Pao analyzed that nine years ago, China gave Trump a "state visit plus" treatment, but he launched a trade war against China soon after returning to the US. This time, China may still give him a high-level welcome, but has dispelled unrealistic expectations.
The article notes that according to China’s stance, the summit between the heads of state is meant to place the two sides on equal footing, "to have in-depth exchanges of views on major issues concerning China-US relations and world peace and development," and to maintain a situation of rivalry without breaking ties.
In addition, Sing Tao Daily quoted several Beijing scholars’ analyses, saying this "Xi-Trump Summit" is mainly about setting the tone for relations, stabilizing expectations, and controlling risks. Both sides still have opportunities for substantive progress in economic and trade cooperation, including resuming bilateral communication mechanisms, delaying tariff escalation, reaching interim agreements on commodity purchases and market access, and stabilizing supply chains.
Moreover, both sides may build a risk management framework in the field of artificial intelligence (AI).
Fang Ning, a researcher at the Institute of Political Science at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said Trump’s visit to China is significant for both China and the US; under the current complex international environment, both sides have realistic demands.
He said that the US has entered the midterm election cycle, and Trump is eager to secure large trade deals with China; with the war in Iran yet to be resolved, the US expects China to play a positive role in promoting ceasefire and peace.
China also has many expectations of the US, including the swift restoration of calm in the Persian Gulf and the unimpeded export of Middle Eastern oil, which is vital to China and the global economy.
Fang also noted that China hopes the Trump administration will show a clearer position on the Taiwan issue. However, as the Taiwan issue is highly sensitive and complex, it is not something the US executive branch alone can determine; both the House and Senate in Congress have significant authority and influence over related matters.
Sun Chenghao, Associate Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Security Studies at Tsinghua University and director of the Chinese Association for American Studies, believes that although the Trump administration has a tough stance on China, the tariff barriers and restructuring of supply chains have already made American companies, farmers, and consumers bear considerable costs.
He said that if China and the US can establish a framework for interim stability, it would help the Trump administration stabilize economic and political expectations domestically. For China, it would also support high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and the maintenance of overseas markets, cross-border investment, and global supply chain stability.
He analyzed that the economic and trade topics at this meeting will likely focus on three areas: first, to continue and institutionalize the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism to prevent measures such as tariffs, export controls, and investment reviews from spreading further; second, China may urge the US side to stop amplifying actions that disrupt existing stability, such as "301 investigations," supply chain rules, and technology and financial restrictions; third, both sides can expand practical cooperation in areas like agricultural products, energy, finance, and enterprise exchanges.
In addition, both China and the US have real needs to establish risk management mechanisms in the AI field; AI concerns nuclear security, biosafety, cyber security, public opinion management, and military crisis stability. The proliferation of high-end AI technologies can easily trigger transnational risks, so China and the US could start with low-sensitivity and high-risk areas, such as military misuse of AI, boundaries between AI and nuclear command and control systems, and risk assessments for model runaway situations.