The Financial Times reported on the 24th that, 15 minutes before U.S. President Donald Trump posted on social media about U.S.-Iran talks, an unusually large transaction worth about $580 million (about 2.291 billion ringgit) occurred in the international crude oil market, arousing market speculation of insider trading.
According to the report, between 6:49 and 6:50 am New York time on the 23rd, about 6,200 Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contracts traded hands. According to Bloomberg data, the notional value of these contracts reached $580 million. With crude oil futures trading volume surging suddenly, the S&P 500 index spiked instantaneously, with trading volume expanding significantly at the same time.
The report pointed out that Trump then posted at 7:04 am, saying: "Over the past two days, the United States and Iran have held very good and productive talks regarding a comprehensive and complete resolution to hostilities in the Middle East region."
This news triggered a massive sell-off in global energy markets. As investors downgraded their bets on a prolonged conflict, S&P 500 index futures and European stock markets simultaneously moved higher.
The report states that such precisely timed transactions are strikingly similar to what had occurred before previous U.S. attacks on Iran and Venezuela. Several hedge funds said this is just one of many cases in recent months involving large, early trades ahead of major official U.S. announcements.
The report quoted a trader at a large hedge fund as saying that energy consulting firms have recently noticed several large trades with suspicious timing. Another investment manager said a series of precisely timed large transactions has caused strong dissatisfaction among investors.
According to the report, later on the 23rd, Iran's parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf posted on social media, explicitly denying any negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. This statement immediately triggered a pullback in global stock markets, while renewed buying emerged in energy markets.
Ghalibaf said the purpose of spreading false news is to manipulate financial and oil markets so as to help the U.S. and Israel extricate themselves from their quagmires.