Singapore think tank has released its latest annual survey report this week, showing that if forced to choose between China and the US, more Southeast Asian respondents favored China this year, marking the third reversal in seven years. This also means that the US failed to maintain its slight advantage, which it regained over China last year.
According to Lianhe Zaobao, the ASEAN Studies Centre at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore published the "State of Southeast Asia: 2026" report on the 7th. This marks the eighth consecutive year of surveying Southeast Asian knowledge elites on their perceptions and trust toward countries such as China and the US, as well as their views on regional geopolitical issues.
The survey was conducted between January 5 and February 20 this year. This period coincided with rising geopolitical uncertainties, including U.S. intervention in Venezuela and subsequent developments, as well as previous tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Gaza-based Hamas. It is worth noting that during the survey, the United States and Israel had not yet launched a war against Iran.
This year, a total of 2,008 people participated in the survey. They came from 11 ASEAN countries, representing academia and think tanks, business, civil organizations, NGOs and media, government departments, as well as regional and international institutions.
On the question of which side to choose between China and the US if forced, 52% this year leaned toward China, while 48% chose the US. This slight difference highlights Southeast Asia’s delicate balance between the two major powers. Last year, 47.7% chose China, and 52.3% chose the US.
● The Philippines Firmly Aligns With Washington
Countries whose economies are highly interdependent with China appear to be more inclined toward Beijing, while the US’s traditional security partners—especially the Philippines—remain firmly aligned with Washington.
On the other hand, expectations for improving relations with China are growing among ASEAN countries. The majority of respondents (55.6%) believe that their countries will improve or significantly improve relations with China.
Under a possible Trump 2.0 administration, ASEAN countries’ expectations toward relations with the US have become more cautious and uncertain. The mainstream view among respondents (37.7%) is that the relationship will remain the same.
Another 32.8% of respondents expect relations with the US to improve or significantly improve, while 29.5% predict a deterioration. Compared to last year, optimism appears to have decreased, with fewer respondents expecting substantial improvement and more respondents adopting a wait-and-see attitude.
● Maintaining Balance in Southeast Asia Is Becoming Increasingly Difficult
Lim Wei Ling, head of the ASEAN Studies Centre at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, said: "This year's survey results highlight that Southeast Asia feels uneasy about both major powers, though in different ways. The region still values strategic autonomy and diversified partnerships, but is also increasingly aware of the limitations of ASEAN as a unit. The broader message is that Southeast Asia still hopes to maintain balance rather than alignment, but maintaining this balance is becoming increasingly difficult.”