On the Eve of Japan's Upper House Election, Soaring Rice Prices Impact LDP's Ballot Box

Japan will hold voting for the House of Councillors (Upper House) election on the 20th, but issues such as soaring rice prices and inflation may sway public opinion toward the opposition. The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito predicts that they will be unable to maintain a majority of seats.

Rising prices are the issue of greatest concern for the Japanese public. In data released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs on the 18th, June’s core consumer price index shows that although rice prices increased less than in May, they are still twice as high as the same period last year.

Recent surveys by Japanese media outlets such as "Asahi Shimbun" and "Nihon Keizai Shimbun" (Nikkei) show that, compared with the early stages of the campaign, support for the ruling coalition continues to decline nationwide, with even many traditionally strong constituencies facing tough races.

The LDP and Komeito already lost their majority in the House of Representatives election last October, becoming a minority ruling coalition. Because the opposition has been unable to unite and form a majority government, the two parties have been able to continue in power as a minority.

The Japanese Upper House has a total of 248 seats, with members serving six-year terms and half the seats up for election every three years. In this election, 124 seats are being contested, plus one supplementary Tokyo district seat, for a total of 125. The LDP and Komeito currently hold 75 non-contested seats, so to maintain a majority in the Upper House, the coalition must win at least 50 seats.

According to predictions by "Yomiuri Shimbun", the LDP may end up with only a bit over 30 seats, and even with Komeito’s seats, it is likely difficult to cross the majority threshold.

Ishiba Shigeru’s Premiership in Danger

Meanwhile, "Mainichi Shimbun" reports that expectations within the LDP for the election are very pessimistic. A cabinet member revealed, “The closer we get to voting day, the more tense the political situation becomes. The party is preparing for the possibility of losing a majority in the Upper House.”

If the ruling coalition suffers another defeat in the Upper House election, it could prompt opposition forces to unite and form a majority coalition in the House of Representatives, leading to the LDP and Komeito stepping down. Even if the chances of a united opposition government are slim, Ishiba Shigeru himself will be pressured to resign within the party for failing to achieve his pledged electoral target of majority seats.

"Mainichi Shimbun" has learned that LDP heavyweights have already simulated scenarios for after the election, and the view that "the Prime Minister’s resignation is already a foregone conclusion" is spreading within the party. The LDP has already drawn up timetables for electing a new party president. Two leaked plans exist: one would be to convene an extraordinary Diet session in late July to hold leadership elections before electing the new Speaker and Vice Speaker; the other would be to schedule it after the Obon Festival in late August.

However, the LDP must also consider that Japan-U.S. tariff negotiations are still ongoing.