The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest monthly oil report on the 13th, stating that the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a sustained and expanding loss of oil supply, with global oil inventories being depleted at a record pace. As the summer demand peak approaches, international oil prices may fluctuate further.
The report points out that due to continued restrictions on tanker transport through the Strait of Hormuz, cumulative supply losses from Gulf oil-producing countries have exceeded 1 billion barrels. Currently, more than 14 million barrels per day of oil production capacity has been forced offline, constituting an unprecedented supply shock.
Meanwhile, crude oil from consumers’ commercial inventories and government strategic reserves is flowing into the market to partially offset the supply gap. In March and April, global observable oil stocks—including offshore crude—dropped by 250 million barrels, equivalent to an average decline of 4 million barrels per day.
The report says the petrochemical industry is currently the most severely affected sector, with feedstock supplies becoming increasingly tight. Aviation activity also remains well below normal levels, which has helped alleviate some pressure on jet fuel prices. Previously, due to the interruption of Middle East exports, jet fuel prices had soared to nearly double. Price increases, deteriorating economic conditions, and fuel-saving measures are expected to further dampen global oil consumption.
The IEA estimates that in the second quarter of this year, global oil demand will fall by an average of 2.45 million barrels per day year-on-year; for the full year, global oil demand will decrease by an average of 420,000 barrels per day year-on-year, dropping to 104 million barrels per day, which is 1.3 million barrels per day lower than forecasts made before the eruption of the Middle East conflict.
The report suggests that if the US and Iran can reach an agreement to end hostilities and allow oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz to gradually resume starting in the third quarter of this year, global oil demand could return to a growth track by the end of the year. However, the recovery in supply is expected to be slow. Therefore, the oil market is forecast to remain in a state of supply shortage until the fourth quarter of this year. Given that global oil inventories have already declined at a record pace, oil prices could continue to fluctuate before the arrival of the summer demand peak.