The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released its latest report on the 9th, indicating that despite factors such as heightened geopolitical tensions, uneven global demand, and rising trade costs, global trade is expected to maintain growth in the second half of 2025, with the total annual trade volume likely to surpass $35 trillion (approximately 144 trillion ringgit) for the first time.
The report shows that global trade in the third quarter of 2025 grew by 2.5% compared to the previous quarter, with goods trade increasing by nearly 2% and services trade growing by 4%. It is expected that growth in global trade will continue in the fourth quarter of this year, albeit at a slower pace. The total annual trade volume is expected to grow by about 7% compared to last year, with goods trade forecasted to increase by $1.5 trillion and services trade by $750 billion.
The report points out that over the past year, East Asia recorded the strongest growth in exports with a 9% increase, including a 10% rise in intra-regional trade. South-South trade grew by around 8%, reflecting ever-closer economic ties among developing economies. Among these economies, China and South Korea performed particularly well in East Asia, while Brazil and South Africa acted as the main growth engines for South America and Africa, respectively. At the same time, India and China saw strong growth in services exports, underscoring the increasingly important role of emerging economies in global trade.
The report also notes that in 2025, the trends of friend-shoring and near-shoring will strengthen again, with trade shifting toward partners with similar political stances or geographical proximity, signaling a reshaping of the global trade landscape.
UNCTAD predicts that due to slowing global economic activity, mounting debt, rising trade costs, and ongoing pressures from uncertainty, global trade growth is expected to slow in 2026.