(Yangon, 24th) Myanmar's elections will begin with phased voting starting Sunday (December 28). Despite being criticized as a complete sham, support provided by changes in the diplomatic environment may allow this election to grant some legitimacy to the military junta's rule.
The election is expected to help the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which is allied with the military government, return to power. In 2021, the military junta launched a coup, overthrowing Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratically elected government and triggering a civil war that continues to this day.
The United Nations on Tuesday (23rd) condemned the Myanmar military government for using violence and intimidation to force citizens to participate in the upcoming military-controlled elections, while opposition armed groups have also used similar tactics to prevent people from voting.
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said: “The Myanmar military must stop using brutal violence to coerce people into voting and stop arresting anyone who expresses dissent.” He also condemned the “grave threats from armed organizations opposing the military.”
To the military government, the key issue in the election is whether it can end its widespread isolation and restart foreign investment.
Fredrik Frizell, a research fellow at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, said: “Despite serious flaws in this election, and the exclusion of most of the parties that won the 2020 election, this apparent restoration of an elected government and constitutional order actually serves to normalize the military junta's rule.”
He added that this provides political cover for foreign governments wishing to engage with Myanmar.
USDP spokesperson U La Dun said in an interview: “We expect the new government to achieve a certain degree of legitimacy. Many countries will recognize a government elected by the people in a free and fair election, and international trade and commerce will usually flourish as a result.”
Shifts in the diplomatic landscape have created opportunities for the Myanmar military government.
Despite bipartisan pressure from Republicans and Democrats, Trump has yet to criticize the Myanmar military junta or condemn this election. Indian Prime Minister Modi has also expressed support for the election. At the same time, China has become the Myanmar junta’s most crucial supporter.
Last year, when the military government suffered a series of defeats, China supplied key military and diplomatic support. China mediated ceasefire talks, and after negotiations failed, threatened to cut off trade with northern armed groups and close critical border crossings.
Beijing also pressured the United Wa State Army to reduce its supply of weapons to other armed organizations. Within months, territories previously occupied were handed back to the Myanmar military.
Ta Pan Kyaw, secretary general of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, wrote in a poem this month: “No bullets, no budget, not enough people left to sacrifice—we had to negotiate a ceasefire. I want to apologize to those who have fallen.”
According to government statistics, last year China was Myanmar's largest trading partner, with exports to Myanmar exceeding $7.7 billion.
Last month, the Myanmar military government publicly sided with China, issuing a statement regarding Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan—something commentators say would have been unimaginable in the past.
Richard Horsey, senior adviser on Myanmar for the International Crisis Group, said: “In exchange for these benefits, the Myanmar military junta has had to sell part of its soul to China. This is absolutely not the position the military wants—they certainly don’t want to be a Chinese client in any sense.”
The election is expected to help the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which is allied with the military government, return to power. In 2021, the military junta launched a coup, overthrowing Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratically elected government and triggering a civil war that continues to this day.
The United Nations on Tuesday (23rd) condemned the Myanmar military government for using violence and intimidation to force citizens to participate in the upcoming military-controlled elections, while opposition armed groups have also used similar tactics to prevent people from voting.
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said: “The Myanmar military must stop using brutal violence to coerce people into voting and stop arresting anyone who expresses dissent.” He also condemned the “grave threats from armed organizations opposing the military.”
Fredrik Frizell, a research fellow at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, said: “Despite serious flaws in this election, and the exclusion of most of the parties that won the 2020 election, this apparent restoration of an elected government and constitutional order actually serves to normalize the military junta's rule.”
He added that this provides political cover for foreign governments wishing to engage with Myanmar.
USDP spokesperson U La Dun said in an interview: “We expect the new government to achieve a certain degree of legitimacy. Many countries will recognize a government elected by the people in a free and fair election, and international trade and commerce will usually flourish as a result.”
Shifts in the diplomatic landscape have created opportunities for the Myanmar military government.
Despite bipartisan pressure from Republicans and Democrats, Trump has yet to criticize the Myanmar military junta or condemn this election. Indian Prime Minister Modi has also expressed support for the election. At the same time, China has become the Myanmar junta’s most crucial supporter.
Last year, when the military government suffered a series of defeats, China supplied key military and diplomatic support. China mediated ceasefire talks, and after negotiations failed, threatened to cut off trade with northern armed groups and close critical border crossings.
Beijing also pressured the United Wa State Army to reduce its supply of weapons to other armed organizations. Within months, territories previously occupied were handed back to the Myanmar military.
Ta Pan Kyaw, secretary general of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, wrote in a poem this month: “No bullets, no budget, not enough people left to sacrifice—we had to negotiate a ceasefire. I want to apologize to those who have fallen.”
According to government statistics, last year China was Myanmar's largest trading partner, with exports to Myanmar exceeding $7.7 billion.
Last month, the Myanmar military government publicly sided with China, issuing a statement regarding Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan—something commentators say would have been unimaginable in the past.
Richard Horsey, senior adviser on Myanmar for the International Crisis Group, said: “In exchange for these benefits, the Myanmar military junta has had to sell part of its soul to China. This is absolutely not the position the military wants—they certainly don’t want to be a Chinese client in any sense.”