The World Trade Organization released its latest data on the 31st, showing that global goods trade growth in the first quarter of 2026 exceeded expectations. The sharp rise in artificial intelligence-related electronics trade offset the negative impact caused by the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East at the end of February.
According to Xinhua News Agency, the data shows that after seasonal adjustments, global goods trade volume increased by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter and 3.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year; in value terms, global goods trade grew by 2% quarter-on-quarter and 11% year-on-year.
The WTO stated that despite negative impacts from the Middle East conflict—including disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and higher energy prices slowing economic growth in net fuel-importing countries—robust growth in electronics trade related to artificial intelligence has offset these adverse effects. In the first quarter of this year, the global trade value of AI-related products, measured in US dollars, increased by more than 40% year-on-year.
Greater Decline Expected in Middle East in the Second Quarter
By region, goods trade in the Middle East was severely affected by the conflict, with export and import volumes down 9.7% and 11.9% year-on-year respectively in the first quarter. The decline is expected to be even greater in the second quarter. Driven by investment spending related to artificial intelligence, Asia's export and import volumes in the first quarter increased by 12.9% and 14.6% year-on-year, mainly due to the circulation of AI-related goods within the region. In North America, first-quarter export volume grew by 7.0% year-on-year, while import volume fell by 10.7%.
The WTO expects that next quarter's trade data will more fully reflect the impact of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.