China's latest report shows that as the country with the largest elderly population in the world, China has added 100 million elderly people over the past decade. By the end of 2025, China's population aged 60 and over will exceed 320 million, an increase of 100 million compared to 220 million in 2015.
The Ministry of Civil Affairs and the National Working Committee on Aging released the "2025 National Aging Development Bulletin" on the 31st, indicating that by the end of 2025, the population aged 60 and above will reach 323.38 million, accounting for 23.0% of the total population; people aged 65 and above will number 223.65 million, accounting for 15.9% of the total population.
“Caixin” pointed out that by the end of 2023, the proportion of China's population aged 60 and above exceeded 20% for the first time, officially entering a moderately aging society. In ten years, it is set to further slip into a heavily aging society.
Official forecasts predict that by 2035, the population aged 60 and over will increase to about 420 million, accounting for more than 30%. By around 2050, the size and proportion of China's elderly population are expected to reach their peak.
Pension Pressure Continues to Rise
The "Bulletin" further reveals that by the end of 2025, the elderly dependency ratio for those aged 65 and above will be 23.1%, meaning that on average, every 4.3 working-age individuals will support one person aged 65 or older.
This figure has nearly doubled over the past decade. Many experts have previously predicted that as aging intensifies, China's elderly dependency ratio will continue to rise, bringing pressure to the "pay-as-you-go" basic pension insurance system.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) pointed out in February this year that China is facing rapid population aging and a continuous decline in the labor force, which poses major challenges to the economy and public finances, especially impacting the pension system. The IMF study estimates that the demographic aging factor alone could cause China's average annual GDP growth rate from 2024 to 2050 to drop by about 2 percentage points, while pension expenditures will rise by nearly 10 percentage points, with pension spending as a proportion of GDP increasing significantly.