After the Spring Festival holiday, the RMB has seen continuous appreciation against the US dollar, with both onshore and offshore RMB strengthening beyond the 6.85 mark on the 26th to reach a nearly three-year high. Analysts point out that the rapid post-holiday appreciation of the RMB against the dollar is due to factors such as the volatility of the US dollar index and the accelerated release of settlement demand.
On the 26th, the onshore RMB/USD spot exchange rate broke through the 6.86 level at market open, continued to strengthen further and broke through 6.85. As of press time, it hit an intraday high of 6.8430, reaching its highest level since April 17, 2023. In the three trading days after the Spring Festival break, the spot RMB/USD exchange rate has risen by nearly 1% cumulatively (closing at 6.9114 on February 13, 2026).
The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate, which reflects international investors’ expectations more, broke through the 6.84 level on the 26th for the first time since April 14, 2023. As of press time, it reached an intraday high of 6.83875.
Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, analyzed that the rapid appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar after the holiday is due to the stabilization of China-US economic and trade relations, the new Fed chair's stance not yet reversing the dollar's weakness, and the accelerated release of accumulated settlement demand from previous exports. Additionally, the recent positive sentiment in the foreign exchange market has also been an important factor contributing to the strong performance of the RMB.
Wang Qing pointed out that the current level of appreciation will not pose a major shock to exports of foreign trade enterprises, but the impact will mainly be reflected in losses in foreign exchange gains for exporters. However, foreign trade companies should avoid making one-sided bets during RMB exchange rate fluctuations and are advised to moderately utilize various foreign exchange market derivatives to control their exchange rate risk exposure.