U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to visit China next week and meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. There is public attention on whether the Taiwan issue will become a topic at the 'Trump-Xi meeting' and whether there might be a 'Fourth U.S.-China Communiqué.' Taiwanese scholars believe that there is a lack of sufficient political mutual trust between the two sides, making it unlikely for a fourth communiqué to be issued; the focus is still expected to be on resolving issues such as China's trade surplus with the U.S.
Taiwan's media outlet China Times on Tuesday cited Wang Hong-ren, a full-time professor at the Department of Political Science at National Cheng Kung University and executive director of the National Policy Foundation, saying that it is currently hard to imagine the possibility of a fourth U.S.-China communiqué, because it is unlikely for the U.S. to agree to include wording such as 'opposing or not supporting Taiwan independence' in the communiqué.
He said that this 'Trump-Xi meeting' should still focus on trade issues between the two sides, such as urging China to fulfill its previous commitments to purchase U.S. agricultural products, address fentanyl, and import U.S.-made aircraft.
Ma Chun-wei, assistant professor at the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University, also analyzed that the focus of the 'Trump-Xi meeting' should still be on normalizing trade and technological controls between the U.S. and mainland China.
Ma said that although the mainland is certain to raise the Taiwan issue, it is not a topic the U.S. side wishes to discuss. In addition, the mainland currently cannot offer conditions sufficient to satisfy the U.S., and there is insufficient political mutual trust between the two sides, making it difficult to sign a fourth U.S.-China communiqué.
Trump is expected to visit Beijing on May 14 to meet with Xi Jinping. Taipei will be watching to see whether Trump will soften the U.S. stance on Taiwan or reshape the U.S.'s long-term Taiwan policy in exchange for the mainland purchasing American airplanes and agricultural products, thereby helping to alleviate the economic pressure facing the U.S. domestically.
Wu Xinbo, Director of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said: 'Regarding the Taiwan issue, the logic is very simple: if the United States does not want to have a large-scale war with China over Taiwan, it should not support Taiwan independence.'
Wu Xinbo also said: 'Trump has no interest in going to war with China. To avoid a major conflict involving the United States, he should make it clear that he will not support (Taiwan) independence, nor will he take actions encouraging a separatist political agenda.'