A scholar who previously served as an economic and fiscal advisor to the Venezuelan Congress believes that when U.S. President Trump says Washington will "manage" Venezuela, what he cares about most may be bringing U.S. companies back and regaining control over Venezuelan oil.
The authoritative bimonthly magazine “Foreign Affairs” interviewed Francisco Rodríguez, a senior fellow at the Washington think tank Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) and professor at the University of Denver. He served as Economic and Fiscal Advisor to the Venezuelan Congress from 2000 to 2004.
After ousting Maduro, Trump surprisingly did not support opposition leader Machado to take office, saying that she lacked the prestige to lead the country.
Rodríguez pointed out that since Machado and her opposition allies advocate the imprisonment of almost all of Maduro's government and military leaders, Trump likely feels that letting Machado take power would risk ungovernability and chaos. Trump does not seem inclined to support the opposition; instead, he is willing to work with the existing "post-Maduro government" as long as they can meet U.S. needs for oil and national security.
Most Venezuelans Welcome a New Path
During Maduro’s rule, Venezuela’s GDP shrank by nearly three-quarters, and about 8 million Venezuelans fled their homes. Rodríguez believes that most Venezuelans would welcome the end of the Maduro era and hope for a new way forward.
However, Rodríguez stated that if Venezuela reaches an agreement with the U.S. to lift sanctions and secures billions of dollars in investment to rejuvenate its oil industry, Venezuelan per capita GDP could triple within ten years. At that point, whoever runs for office could easily win, but this does not mean Venezuela would truly move toward democracy. The most likely scenario is that regardless of who is in charge, Venezuela would essentially bow to the U.S., and ultimately it would still be the United States that decides who holds power.
He warns that externally led national reconstruction often leads to greater instability. This time, Trump’s actions seem to be motivated not by democracy, but by oil—especially as Washington chooses to work with Maduro’s deputies. The Venezuelan public and opposition may face a system where Maduro’s regime remains in power and has already reached an oil deal with the U.S., which is not necessarily a good thing.