(Sydney, 26th) The latest report from the Australian think tank Lowy Institute points out that policies of the Trump administration—such as tariffs, aid cuts, and visa restrictions—are weakening the United States’ influence in Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, China has solidified its position throughout the region through ongoing trade, investment, and diplomatic efforts.
The Lowy Institute released its Southeast Asia Power Index on Wednesday (September 24), showing that China has surpassed the U.S. to become the most influential external partner in the region, attributing this shift to the lack of coherence in U.S. foreign policy.
When evaluating cooperation in trade, investment, and defense, the report notes that China’s influence in Southeast Asia is pervasive, while the United States is increasingly being seen as a marginal player.
The influence gap between China and the United States is especially pronounced in Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, where China’s influence exceeds the U.S. by 60% to 150%. U.S. influence remains most robust among its traditional allies, like the Philippines and Singapore, mainly due to strong defense ties.
The report highlights that reciprocal tariffs, visa restrictions, and an 83% cut in foreign aid under the Trump administration are the main drivers of the decline in U.S. influence. Southeast Asian countries were hit hard by new tariffs imposed in April this year, and even after tariff adjustments in July, Laos and Myanmar still faced U.S. tariffs as high as 40%.
During Trump’s second term, USAID (United States Agency for International Development) was dissolved, and the U.S. Agency for Global Media underwent drastic funding cuts and layoffs. These agencies, which have overseen outlets like Voice of America and Radio Free Asia for decades, represent key sources of U.S. soft power in Asia.
In July this year, Senate Democrats accused Trump of “handing over global leadership to China” through trade wars and cuts to aid and media budgets. A Pew Research Center survey found that favorability toward China in wealthy countries reached 32%, a six-year high; support for the United States dropped to 35%, its lowest since 2017.
The report shows that by leveraging trade, investment, and diplomacy, China has expanded its influence in this region once dominated by the U.S. At the same time, Southeast Asian countries are diversifying their development to avoid dependence on a single great power and to limit geopolitical risk.
Lowy Institute Deputy Director Susannah Patton analyzed: “China has a clear lead over the U.S., but our research also shows that regional cooperation among Southeast Asian countries is very significant. This means China has yet to entirely bring the region into its uncontested sphere of influence.”
The Lowy Institute released its Southeast Asia Power Index on Wednesday (September 24), showing that China has surpassed the U.S. to become the most influential external partner in the region, attributing this shift to the lack of coherence in U.S. foreign policy.
When evaluating cooperation in trade, investment, and defense, the report notes that China’s influence in Southeast Asia is pervasive, while the United States is increasingly being seen as a marginal player.
The influence gap between China and the United States is especially pronounced in Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, where China’s influence exceeds the U.S. by 60% to 150%. U.S. influence remains most robust among its traditional allies, like the Philippines and Singapore, mainly due to strong defense ties.
The report highlights that reciprocal tariffs, visa restrictions, and an 83% cut in foreign aid under the Trump administration are the main drivers of the decline in U.S. influence. Southeast Asian countries were hit hard by new tariffs imposed in April this year, and even after tariff adjustments in July, Laos and Myanmar still faced U.S. tariffs as high as 40%.
During Trump’s second term, USAID (United States Agency for International Development) was dissolved, and the U.S. Agency for Global Media underwent drastic funding cuts and layoffs. These agencies, which have overseen outlets like Voice of America and Radio Free Asia for decades, represent key sources of U.S. soft power in Asia.
In July this year, Senate Democrats accused Trump of “handing over global leadership to China” through trade wars and cuts to aid and media budgets. A Pew Research Center survey found that favorability toward China in wealthy countries reached 32%, a six-year high; support for the United States dropped to 35%, its lowest since 2017.
The report shows that by leveraging trade, investment, and diplomacy, China has expanded its influence in this region once dominated by the U.S. At the same time, Southeast Asian countries are diversifying their development to avoid dependence on a single great power and to limit geopolitical risk.
Lowy Institute Deputy Director Susannah Patton analyzed: “China has a clear lead over the U.S., but our research also shows that regional cooperation among Southeast Asian countries is very significant. This means China has yet to entirely bring the region into its uncontested sphere of influence.”