(Indonesia, 18th) — Indonesia’s political arena has been abuzz recently with reports that President Prabowo’s Great Indonesia Movement Party is in merger talks with the National Democratic Party, the fourth largest party in parliament. If this potential political union materializes, it would significantly strengthen Prabowo’s absolute grip on Indonesian politics.
The Indonesian magazine “Tempo” reported in April that National Democratic Party (NasDem) leader Surya Paloh paid a quiet visit to Prabowo’s private residence in West Java province this February. During their one-on-one meeting, the possibility of a party merger was discussed.
Currently, in the 578-seat parliament, the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) and the National Democratic Party hold 86 seats (15%) and 68 seats (12%) respectively, making them the third and fourth largest parties in parliament.
As for the motivations behind the merger, there are differing accounts. Some sources within the National Democratic Party claim the merger was proposed by Prabowo; those close to Prabowo, however, say it was Surya Paloh’s idea, aimed at simplifying Indonesia’s fragmented multi-party system.
During a mid-April meeting with editors-in-chief of various media outlets, Surya Paloh denied news of a merger between the two parties. He stated it was too early for any such conclusion, but admitted that, in theory, it was a “reasonable proposition.”
He said that during his meeting with Prabowo, they discussed Indonesia’s future challenges, the integration of government-supporting parties, and the challenges that ruling coalition parties may face in the future.
National Democratic Party Deputy Chairman Ahmad Sahroni emphasized that a combination of the two parties is only a theoretical concept for now, with no formal discussion within the party; if the merger goes ahead, both parties will form a new entity on equal footing, rather than the Great Indonesia Movement Party absorbing the National Democratic Party.
Both the Great Indonesia Movement Party and the National Democratic Party were split off from the old-line Golkar Party. The Great Indonesia Movement Party employs a more class-delineated, centrally controlled governance model, while the National Democratic Party mainly recruits former bureaucrats, regents, judges, and prosecutors, and emphasizes a consultative approach in its governance.
National Democratic Party Faces “Exodus” as It Seeks Survival
The National Democratic Party, founded in 2011, sided with former President Joko Widodo in both the 2014 and 2019 elections and was part of the ruling coalition. However, at the end of Joko’s term, two National Democratic Party ministers were arrested for corruption, souring the party’s relationship with Joko. In the 2024 presidential election, NasDem supported Anies Baswedan, widely regarded as Joko’s political rival, rather than Joko’s preferred candidate, Prabowo.
After Prabowo’s victory, the National Democratic Party sought to mend relations with him, turned to support the new government, and joined the ruling coalition, but did not receive any cabinet posts.
The situation is even more severe as the National Democratic Party is experiencing a significant “exodus”—several senior cadres have defected to the Indonesian Solidarity Party, led by Joko’s son Kaesang, despite the party holding no parliamentary seats. Defectors include former vice chairman Ahmad Ali, former Jakarta local legislative party leader Bestari Barus, and former MP Rusdi Masse. Ahmad Ali is now the Solidarity Party’s executive chairman, and Bestari is on the party’s central committee.
This wave of departures is, to some extent, due to factional infighting within the party. Visiting Fellow Made Supriatma from Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute told Lianhe Zaobao that some NasDem elites are dissatisfied with Surya Paloh’s leadership and oppose his intention to hand over the party to his son, Prananda. Their choice to join the Solidarity Party stems from hopes of holding more important posts and belief that the party has sufficient funding for gradual expansion.
"Cadre defection to the Solidarity Party risks eroding NasDem’s popular base. Aligning itself with Prabowo’s currently dominant Great Indonesia Movement Party is a logical move for NasDem, as it seeks to safeguard its future. The party itself may decline, but its elites can continue working within the Great Indonesia Movement Party.”
Made also pointed out that by not being part of the government, NasDem is at a disadvantage in utilizing state resources and influencing policy.
Together, the Great Indonesia Movement Party and the National Democratic Party control over a quarter of the parliament’s seats. Although Indonesia’s Constitutional Court ruled last year to abolish the nomination threshold for presidential candidates, parties have not clearly expressed their stance on the decision, and related legal amendments are still under discussion.
Made said that if the Great Indonesia Movement Party and NasDem merge, it would create a considerable political force. The Great Indonesia Movement Party could then nominate a presidential candidate on its own, without needing to form a coalition. This could bring about massive changes to Indonesia’s political landscape.
“Will Prabowo bow to the other parties…? Parties in the ruling coalition would become more like minor players, rather than equal partners. Prabowo’s alliance, without needing to unify as a single party, would suffice to form a powerful bloc. This would strengthen Prabowo’s control over Indonesia’s political scene.”
Currently, in the 578-seat parliament, the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) and the National Democratic Party hold 86 seats (15%) and 68 seats (12%) respectively, making them the third and fourth largest parties in parliament.
As for the motivations behind the merger, there are differing accounts. Some sources within the National Democratic Party claim the merger was proposed by Prabowo; those close to Prabowo, however, say it was Surya Paloh’s idea, aimed at simplifying Indonesia’s fragmented multi-party system.
During a mid-April meeting with editors-in-chief of various media outlets, Surya Paloh denied news of a merger between the two parties. He stated it was too early for any such conclusion, but admitted that, in theory, it was a “reasonable proposition.”
He said that during his meeting with Prabowo, they discussed Indonesia’s future challenges, the integration of government-supporting parties, and the challenges that ruling coalition parties may face in the future.
National Democratic Party Deputy Chairman Ahmad Sahroni emphasized that a combination of the two parties is only a theoretical concept for now, with no formal discussion within the party; if the merger goes ahead, both parties will form a new entity on equal footing, rather than the Great Indonesia Movement Party absorbing the National Democratic Party.
Both the Great Indonesia Movement Party and the National Democratic Party were split off from the old-line Golkar Party. The Great Indonesia Movement Party employs a more class-delineated, centrally controlled governance model, while the National Democratic Party mainly recruits former bureaucrats, regents, judges, and prosecutors, and emphasizes a consultative approach in its governance.
National Democratic Party Faces “Exodus” as It Seeks Survival
The National Democratic Party, founded in 2011, sided with former President Joko Widodo in both the 2014 and 2019 elections and was part of the ruling coalition. However, at the end of Joko’s term, two National Democratic Party ministers were arrested for corruption, souring the party’s relationship with Joko. In the 2024 presidential election, NasDem supported Anies Baswedan, widely regarded as Joko’s political rival, rather than Joko’s preferred candidate, Prabowo.
After Prabowo’s victory, the National Democratic Party sought to mend relations with him, turned to support the new government, and joined the ruling coalition, but did not receive any cabinet posts.
The situation is even more severe as the National Democratic Party is experiencing a significant “exodus”—several senior cadres have defected to the Indonesian Solidarity Party, led by Joko’s son Kaesang, despite the party holding no parliamentary seats. Defectors include former vice chairman Ahmad Ali, former Jakarta local legislative party leader Bestari Barus, and former MP Rusdi Masse. Ahmad Ali is now the Solidarity Party’s executive chairman, and Bestari is on the party’s central committee.
This wave of departures is, to some extent, due to factional infighting within the party. Visiting Fellow Made Supriatma from Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute told Lianhe Zaobao that some NasDem elites are dissatisfied with Surya Paloh’s leadership and oppose his intention to hand over the party to his son, Prananda. Their choice to join the Solidarity Party stems from hopes of holding more important posts and belief that the party has sufficient funding for gradual expansion.
"Cadre defection to the Solidarity Party risks eroding NasDem’s popular base. Aligning itself with Prabowo’s currently dominant Great Indonesia Movement Party is a logical move for NasDem, as it seeks to safeguard its future. The party itself may decline, but its elites can continue working within the Great Indonesia Movement Party.”
Made also pointed out that by not being part of the government, NasDem is at a disadvantage in utilizing state resources and influencing policy.
Together, the Great Indonesia Movement Party and the National Democratic Party control over a quarter of the parliament’s seats. Although Indonesia’s Constitutional Court ruled last year to abolish the nomination threshold for presidential candidates, parties have not clearly expressed their stance on the decision, and related legal amendments are still under discussion.
Made said that if the Great Indonesia Movement Party and NasDem merge, it would create a considerable political force. The Great Indonesia Movement Party could then nominate a presidential candidate on its own, without needing to form a coalition. This could bring about massive changes to Indonesia’s political landscape.
“Will Prabowo bow to the other parties…? Parties in the ruling coalition would become more like minor players, rather than equal partners. Prabowo’s alliance, without needing to unify as a single party, would suffice to form a powerful bloc. This would strengthen Prabowo’s control over Indonesia’s political scene.”