Recovery after the Thailand Border Conflict

(Thailand, 10th) Amid uncertainty, local residents have begun returning home and resuming their lives.
The conflict on the Thai-Cambodian border has dealt a heavy blow to the economy of northeastern Thailand, with trade losses estimated at up to 500 million baht per month in just four provinces.
Manatchai Jungtrakool, Deputy Director of the Bank of Thailand (BOT) Northeastern Office, stated that since the conflict erupted in early June and the closure of multiple checkpoints, cross-border trade has been severely disrupted, resulting in the aforementioned losses.
Prior to the escalation, border trade between Thailand and Cambodia averaged about 10 billion baht per month, of which 95% passed through the eastern checkpoints in Sa Kaeo, Chanthaburi, and Trat provinces. The remaining 500 million baht was traded via northeastern provinces like Ubon Ratchathani, Surin, Sisaket, and Buriram. These four provinces have now become the main victims of stagnant trade.
Manatchai pointed out that the impact is not limited to goods trade. Typically, over 10,000 Cambodians enter Thailand each month to access retail, medical, and other services, but such activities have now been forced to reduce, aggravating economic hardship. Cross-border agriculture has also been disrupted, with reports of Cambodian shelling destroying farmland and delaying harvests in disaster-affected Isaan communities.
Local financial institutions have provided relief measures such as loan repayment extensions and additional credit for affected individuals and businesses. The central bank encourages residents to contact local banks for assistance.
The impact is not limited to trade; tourism operators—especially those in border provinces—are also under pressure due to a decline in tourist confidence.
This drop in confidence is not confined to the border area. Thanet Supornsahasrangsi, chairman of the Chonburi Tourism Council, said that inquiries from potential tourists have surged recently, particularly concerning the safety of Pattaya and other coastal areas of Chonburi.
However, in eastern border provinces such as Trat and Chanthaburi, hotel bookings have already fallen by 50%. Thanet said the peak season (normally starting in late November) would usually attract long-haul travelers fleeing cold climates, but ongoing unease could push them toward other competing destinations.
He added there are still some positive signs, such as a slight rebound in Chinese tourist numbers, with promotional activities in Chinese cities receiving good feedback, but ongoing border tensions and a strong baht remain barriers to a full recovery.
Sinchai Wattanasathorn, a hotel operator in Pattaya, said that since COVID-19, businesses have adapted through layoffs and cost-cutting, but if the conflict is prolonged, deeper structural adjustments may be necessary.
His Flipper Hotel Group reported that the number of tourists in the first half of this year dropped by 20% compared to the same period last year.
“If this border conflict cannot be thoroughly resolved, we may be forced to undertake major restructuring,” he said, warning that prolonged stagnation could threaten the long-term stability of the industry.
Border tensions have also impeded the movement of workers, especially in Khlong Yai district, Trat province. A large number of Cambodian laborers—particularly daily wage workers—who have been allowed to return home are now prohibited from re-entering Thailand through permanent checkpoints, causing a sudden labor shortage for local businesses.
Pol Col Kittipat Paopiamsap, Chief of the Trat Immigration Bureau, stated that hundreds of Cambodian workers who used to cross the border daily for work have returned to Cambodia and can no longer enter Thailand.
Currently, only a few contract workers remain, but they too may leave due to uncertainty over whether the conflict might erupt again.
“A key sign of improvement will be the reopening of the Hat Lek checkpoint,” he said.
“If goods are allowed into Cambodia, the situation will ease. But until people can freely move for work and tourism, a return to normal is out of the question.”
Beyond the statistics, the conflict also forced about 180,000 villagers to be displaced. Many fled to temporary shelters far from their homes, livelihoods, and livestock, and are now beginning the journey home.
At the Chang International Circuit shelter in Mueang District, Buriram Province, villagers who fled the fighting welcomed the outcome of peace talks and felt relieved to be able to return to their daily lives.
They packed clothing and belongings into vehicles, preparing to return to their war-ravaged homes in Ban Kruat District, eager to care for livestock left unattended for more than two weeks.
However, many remain cautious, unsure if Cambodia will honor the ceasefire agreement. Despite their concerns, they still choose to return home to work and pay off debt, saying if fighting reignites, they will evacuate again for safety.
42-year-old villager Aew Kiram from Ban Kruat District fled with her husband and children. She said the shelter staff took good care of them, but it’s not home, and she feels anxious about being unable to work.
Her main income comes from rubber tapping, earning 5,000 to 6,000 baht per week. During the conflict, her income dropped to zero, but expenses and debts persisted, with creditors and car loan companies pressing for payment. She decided to go back home to tap rubber and repay her debts, though she still doubts Cambodia’s sincerity.
Another returning villager, Winai Takengphon, also took his family back to Ban Kruat District. He hopes the fighting will not recur, as it affects the livelihoods of people in both countries.
“I was away from home for more than two weeks. I long to return to normal life, and I hope that happens soon,” he said.