According to a report by the UAE's Gulf News website on the 17th, even if the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation this week, it may still take several weeks or even around two months for international oil prices to stabilize.
The report states that with the market predicting the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, Brent crude prices have retreated from the nearly $120 per barrel highs seen during the conflict to around $80 (about 325 ringgit). However, market participants believe that after the strait officially resumes navigation, there will be limited further downside for oil prices, while the physical market returning to normal will require a longer period.
The report points out that the backlog of tankers, high war insurance costs, low inventories, and ongoing market concerns over the sustainability of the ceasefire agreement will continue to support an energy market risk premium.
The report says that even if crude oil prices fall, consumers may still face higher gasoline and diesel prices in the coming weeks. The reason is that refiners, distributors, and retailers need to clear current inventories and purchasing contracts, and there is usually a lag effect in the transmission of fuel prices to the end market.
The report notes that this crisis once again highlights the global energy supply chain’s dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, and may prompt Gulf countries to accelerate the construction of pipelines and alternative transport routes that bypass the strait, in order to enhance the resilience of energy supply chains and reduce the impact of future similar crises on the market.