(Philippines, 11th) The Philippines will hold its midterm elections on the 12th, re-electing 12 of the 24 Senate seats, electing 317 seats for the House of Representatives, as well as provincial, municipal, and local councilors, totaling more than 18,200 people.
According to the Central News Agency, the midterm elections are seen as a precursor to the 2028 presidential election. At present, the popular presidential candidates may come from the Marcos family or the Duterte family, thus these two families will go all out in this midterm election to create conditions for the presidential election three years from now.
Yamas, a political adviser to former Philippine President Aquino III, said the Marcos family is considered pro-American, while the Duterte family is pro-China. The results of this midterm election will affect the 2028 presidential election, which in turn will influence geopolitical dynamics.
Yamas analyzed that with the Duterte family patriarch, former President Duterte, currently detained by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, and the second in command, Vice President Sara, facing impeachment, the strategic goal of this midterm election should be to 'survive' and then gather strength to contest the presidency in 2028.
He said, "If the Duterte family regains power in 2028, it will definitely be a pro-China government, and Taiwan will be affected."
On the other hand, Manila Standard political columnist Banayoyo told the Central News Agency that he does not believe the Philippine midterm elections will have a significant impact on geopolitics.
Banayoyo said that the outside world always perceived former President Duterte as pro-China, but he is now out of office, and Vice President Sara rarely expresses a stance in the US-China competition. The more pressing issue now is whether the US-China competition will escalate from a trade war to a military conflict.
When asked whether the midterm election results will affect Taiwan-Philippines relations or Taiwan Strait security, Banayoyo, a former Philippine representative to Taiwan, believes that the election results have a greater impact on the Philippines itself, especially whether the two major families will continue to fiercely compete after the election.
According to the Central News Agency, the midterm elections are seen as a precursor to the 2028 presidential election. At present, the popular presidential candidates may come from the Marcos family or the Duterte family, thus these two families will go all out in this midterm election to create conditions for the presidential election three years from now.
Yamas, a political adviser to former Philippine President Aquino III, said the Marcos family is considered pro-American, while the Duterte family is pro-China. The results of this midterm election will affect the 2028 presidential election, which in turn will influence geopolitical dynamics.
Yamas analyzed that with the Duterte family patriarch, former President Duterte, currently detained by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, and the second in command, Vice President Sara, facing impeachment, the strategic goal of this midterm election should be to 'survive' and then gather strength to contest the presidency in 2028.
He said, "If the Duterte family regains power in 2028, it will definitely be a pro-China government, and Taiwan will be affected."
On the other hand, Manila Standard political columnist Banayoyo told the Central News Agency that he does not believe the Philippine midterm elections will have a significant impact on geopolitics.
Banayoyo said that the outside world always perceived former President Duterte as pro-China, but he is now out of office, and Vice President Sara rarely expresses a stance in the US-China competition. The more pressing issue now is whether the US-China competition will escalate from a trade war to a military conflict.
When asked whether the midterm election results will affect Taiwan-Philippines relations or Taiwan Strait security, Banayoyo, a former Philippine representative to Taiwan, believes that the election results have a greater impact on the Philippines itself, especially whether the two major families will continue to fiercely compete after the election.