The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook report on the 14th, slightly raising this year’s global economic growth forecast.
The IMF pointed out that tariff shocks are further weakening the prospects for global economic growth, and the world economy remains rather fragile.
The report forecasts that the world economy will grow by 3.2% in 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the July forecast; and by 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from the July forecast.
The IMF emphasized that the upward revision is due to importers stockpiling goods in advance in response to U.S. tariff policies, as well as most countries’ efforts to maintain the openness and stability of the global trade system. Currently, tariff shocks are further weakening the outlook for global economic growth. High uncertainty in trade policy, escalating protectionist measures, persistent geopolitical tensions, and increasing fiscal vulnerabilities all pose downside risks to the global economy.
The report raises the growth rate forecast for emerging markets and developing economies this year by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% compared to the July estimate, and raises the growth forecast for advanced economies by 0.1 percentage points to 1.6%.
The IMF pointed out that the U.S. economy has shown signs of substantial slowdown. Since July, U.S. employment data has fallen far short of expectations, the number of new jobs has declined significantly, and the unemployment rate in August rose to its highest level in nearly four years.
The IMF stated that all economies should strive to ensure debt sustainability, eliminate trade policy uncertainty, and strengthen cooperation to reduce trade and investment barriers.