Despite Leading in Polls, Power is Hard to Seize for People’s Party—Thai Youth Tired of Old-School Politics

The voting day for Thailand’s House of Representatives (Lower House) election will take place on February 8. Last weekend, thousands of young supporters clad in orange cheered enthusiastically at a rally for Thailand’s most popular political party, yet hardly anyone expects the party to smoothly come to power.

According to AFP, although the “People’s Party” leads widely in polls and has pledged to combat corruption and reform Thailand’s harsh lèse majesté law, even the party’s own legislators remain skeptical.

31-year-old political heavyweight Rachanon Srinor said: “They won’t let us form a government or take power so easily. They’ll stop us by any means necessary, and that’s not surprising.”

Dubbed the “Ice Storm” by Thai media, Rachanon is an idol in the eyes of many young Thai voters yearning for change.

The People’s Party is a new incarnation of the organization that won the 2023 general election. Back then, the group promised to relax the lèse majesté law, weaken military influence and break powerful business monopolies. Although it reached a coalition agreement with the second place Pheu Thai Party, led by now-imprisoned former PM Thaksin, military-appointed senators ultimately refused to allow its leader Pita to become prime minister.

Subsequently, because Pita pushed to amend the so-called “Section 112” lèse majesté law, the Constitutional Court barred him from politics for ten years and dissolved the original party.

Authoritative polling agency NIDA’s latest survey shows the reorganized and renamed People’s Party is leading its main rival, the Bhumjaithai Party, by about 11%.

The People’s Party boasts 500,000 followers on TikTok, and produces far more lively, interesting daily content than the Bhumjaithai Party’s 38,000 followers. Napat, a 23-year-old software developer voting for the second time, said, “I’m tired of old-school politics. I hope newcomers who have never had a chance to govern get their chance.”

The Elite and Conservative Forces Firmly Control Power

Despite leading in the polls, Thailand’s elite and conservative forces still consolidate their grip on power. Most analysts doubt that even if the People’s Party wins the most seats, it will have an easy time forming a government.

Analysts expect the current Prime Minister Anutin’s Bhumjaithai Party to come second and may form a coalition with the third-ranking Pheu Thai Party.

Many young voters say this prospect discourages them. Pachari, 26, said: “I might get very angry … not at the party but at the rules or people who made this happen—those who might be cutting deals behind the scenes.”

She said: “Sometimes I do feel frustrated, but I still believe that someday it will be our turn.”

Nattapong: We Can’t Stop Fighting

Although the military-appointed senators who blocked the party from forming a government last time are no longer in parliament and the selection of the prime minister is now decided solely by lower house vote, challenges remain steep. Of the People’s Party’s three prime ministerial candidates, two face charges due to their support for amending the lèse majesté law, which may also result in them being barred from politics.

Political scientist Punchada from Mahidol University analyzed that voters remain indignant over the fate of the dissolved Move Forward Party, especially among the younger generation.

She said that even if the People’s Party wins votes, there is no guarantee it will be able to grasp power, “and so the question arises: Should we really vote for this party? Because if we vote for them but they can’t form a government... our votes might be wasted.”

However, during campaigning, Nattapong, the party’s prime ministerial frontrunner, said he hoped there would be “no more judicial attacks to destroy us” this time. In between taking photos with young supporters, he told AFP that despite the party “having been dissolved many times,” “the people still believe in their own power. We cannot stop believing, and we cannot stop fighting.”