(Singapore, 4th) Recently, Thailand and Cambodia have faced off in contested border areas, resulting in casualties. Both countries' armies intensified deployments to the front lines over the past weekend as tensions remain high. Thai-Cambodian scholars believe that with Thailand's recent political instability, Cambodia may seize the opportunity to make a series of strategic moves on the border issue, but conflict is unlikely to escalate further.
The Thai military reported on May 28 that Cambodian soldiers were found entering the disputed Chong Bok area early in the morning, prompting Thai troops to investigate, leading to a gunfight that left one Cambodian soldier dead. Although high-level military negotiations agreed on a peaceful resolution on the 29th, both countries began deploying troops and weapons to the front line on the 31st. Besides Chong Bok and the previous Preah Vihear Temple incident, Cambodian officers led a group of families to visit the disputed Ta Moan Thom Temple this February and sang the national anthem, which angered Thai soldiers, resulting in a brief standoff.
The border sovereignty dispute between Thailand and Cambodia is long-standing and hard to reconcile. After France ended its colonial rule over Cambodia in 1953, an independent Cambodia adopted the map left by the French, while Thailand used its own map, leading to conflicting interpretations of their borders. The political ecology of both countries is also very complicated, affecting bilateral relations and posing obstacles to resolving the territorial dispute.
Tita Sanglee, a researcher at the Yusof Ishak Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, told Lianhe Zaobao that Thailand's government and regimes change frequently, alternating between military and civilian rule. Cambodia, although relatively stable in leadership, tends to politicize sensitive issues like sovereignty to consolidate the ruling group's legitimacy.
"All these factors make the process of resolving disputes through negotiation or international arbitration highly challenging, as both solutions require sustained mutual trust and acceptance."
Tita noted that Cambodia’s recent troop movements in border areas and strong statements on sovereignty appear to be "highly strategic," with a very delicate timing. "At the moment, I would describe Thailand as being in a state of leadership chaos, with political leadership evidently very fragile and lacking close coordination between security agencies. This presents a golden opportunity for Cambodia to elevate the ruling legitimacy of the young Prime Minister Hun Manet."
Hun Manet is the eldest son of former Prime Minister Hun Sen, who has a close personal relationship with former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin. Thaksin's daughter, Paetongtarn, is the current Thai Prime Minister. Their good personal relations could foster friendly ties between the two countries, but it might also be a double-edged sword.
Termsak Chalermpalanupap, a visiting senior fellow at the Southeast Asian Studies Institute, analyzed for Lianhe Zaobao that Hun Sen might be trying to leverage his personal relationship with Thaksin to gain more advantages in the border dispute and believes Thailand will exercise restraint under Thaksin's influence.
Pannitan Wattanayagorn, associate professor at Chulalongkorn University, pointed out to the Bangkok Post that Thailand’s national security agencies are acting slowly and in a fragmented manner, with the National Security Council in a weak position, indicating internal chaos. Cambodia is taking advantage by simultaneously endorsing national actions through former prime minister and current Senate President Hun Sen, deploying heavy weaponry to the Thai-Cambodian border, and pursuing diplomatic reconciliation.
He is concerned that if Thailand continues to delay, Cambodia will maintain pressure. He hopes that Thailand's security agencies will quickly take action to pave the way for meaningful negotiations.
Thailand and Cambodia offer differing accounts of their border dispute; the Thai military claims Cambodian encroachment, while Kin Phea, Director of the Cambodian Institute of International Relations, argues that Thailand often changes its stance and uses domestic political upheaval to stir public sentiment and divert attention.
Phnom Penh seeks to resolve the issue through international court arbitration. Kin Phea told Lianhe Zaobao that Cambodia's numerous attempts for bilateral communication to resolve the dispute have been unsuccessful, leaving them no choice but to resort to the international court.
Thailand is Cambodia’s fourth-largest trade partner. The Thai military recommended closing the Thai-Cambodian border ports to make a statement, but Paetongtarn's government refused. Kin Phea believes that the Thai military and government do not fully share the same position, and the government does not firmly control the military; if the military wants to escalate the situation with neighboring countries, the Prime Minister's power is insufficient to stop it.
Although neither side is willing to back down at the moment, Kin Phea predicts the situation will not escalate further, nor will it affect the ongoing bilateral cooperation between the two countries, with military communications continuing.
He stated, "The two governments are attempting to resolve the issues and manage conflict, rather than allowing it to spread to other areas of cooperation because their roles as neighbors require cautious consideration of the benefits of a win-win collaboration. We do not see the entire bilateral relationship as a bargaining chip in the border conflict."
The Thai military reported on May 28 that Cambodian soldiers were found entering the disputed Chong Bok area early in the morning, prompting Thai troops to investigate, leading to a gunfight that left one Cambodian soldier dead. Although high-level military negotiations agreed on a peaceful resolution on the 29th, both countries began deploying troops and weapons to the front line on the 31st. Besides Chong Bok and the previous Preah Vihear Temple incident, Cambodian officers led a group of families to visit the disputed Ta Moan Thom Temple this February and sang the national anthem, which angered Thai soldiers, resulting in a brief standoff.
The border sovereignty dispute between Thailand and Cambodia is long-standing and hard to reconcile. After France ended its colonial rule over Cambodia in 1953, an independent Cambodia adopted the map left by the French, while Thailand used its own map, leading to conflicting interpretations of their borders. The political ecology of both countries is also very complicated, affecting bilateral relations and posing obstacles to resolving the territorial dispute.
Tita Sanglee, a researcher at the Yusof Ishak Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, told Lianhe Zaobao that Thailand's government and regimes change frequently, alternating between military and civilian rule. Cambodia, although relatively stable in leadership, tends to politicize sensitive issues like sovereignty to consolidate the ruling group's legitimacy.
"All these factors make the process of resolving disputes through negotiation or international arbitration highly challenging, as both solutions require sustained mutual trust and acceptance."
Tita noted that Cambodia’s recent troop movements in border areas and strong statements on sovereignty appear to be "highly strategic," with a very delicate timing. "At the moment, I would describe Thailand as being in a state of leadership chaos, with political leadership evidently very fragile and lacking close coordination between security agencies. This presents a golden opportunity for Cambodia to elevate the ruling legitimacy of the young Prime Minister Hun Manet."
Hun Manet is the eldest son of former Prime Minister Hun Sen, who has a close personal relationship with former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin. Thaksin's daughter, Paetongtarn, is the current Thai Prime Minister. Their good personal relations could foster friendly ties between the two countries, but it might also be a double-edged sword.
Termsak Chalermpalanupap, a visiting senior fellow at the Southeast Asian Studies Institute, analyzed for Lianhe Zaobao that Hun Sen might be trying to leverage his personal relationship with Thaksin to gain more advantages in the border dispute and believes Thailand will exercise restraint under Thaksin's influence.
Pannitan Wattanayagorn, associate professor at Chulalongkorn University, pointed out to the Bangkok Post that Thailand’s national security agencies are acting slowly and in a fragmented manner, with the National Security Council in a weak position, indicating internal chaos. Cambodia is taking advantage by simultaneously endorsing national actions through former prime minister and current Senate President Hun Sen, deploying heavy weaponry to the Thai-Cambodian border, and pursuing diplomatic reconciliation.
He is concerned that if Thailand continues to delay, Cambodia will maintain pressure. He hopes that Thailand's security agencies will quickly take action to pave the way for meaningful negotiations.
Thailand and Cambodia offer differing accounts of their border dispute; the Thai military claims Cambodian encroachment, while Kin Phea, Director of the Cambodian Institute of International Relations, argues that Thailand often changes its stance and uses domestic political upheaval to stir public sentiment and divert attention.
Phnom Penh seeks to resolve the issue through international court arbitration. Kin Phea told Lianhe Zaobao that Cambodia's numerous attempts for bilateral communication to resolve the dispute have been unsuccessful, leaving them no choice but to resort to the international court.
Thailand is Cambodia’s fourth-largest trade partner. The Thai military recommended closing the Thai-Cambodian border ports to make a statement, but Paetongtarn's government refused. Kin Phea believes that the Thai military and government do not fully share the same position, and the government does not firmly control the military; if the military wants to escalate the situation with neighboring countries, the Prime Minister's power is insufficient to stop it.
Although neither side is willing to back down at the moment, Kin Phea predicts the situation will not escalate further, nor will it affect the ongoing bilateral cooperation between the two countries, with military communications continuing.
He stated, "The two governments are attempting to resolve the issues and manage conflict, rather than allowing it to spread to other areas of cooperation because their roles as neighbors require cautious consideration of the benefits of a win-win collaboration. We do not see the entire bilateral relationship as a bargaining chip in the border conflict."