[Thailand Elections] Pheu Thai Party Suffers Crushing Defeat, Thaksin Clan Not Out Yet

Thailand’s most successful political party of the 21st century has just suffered its worst electoral defeat ever, raising doubts about the future direction of the political machine founded by the jailed former Prime Minister.

According to AFP and preliminary data from the Election Commission, Pheu Thai only came in third place in the vote on the 8th, and the gap was significant. Analysts say multiple factors undermined the party’s influence, including the founder’s conviction—Thaksin was convicted of corruption; missteps by the leadership—his daughter Paetongtarn mishandled the Cambodia border conflict; and family domination—the founding family’s total control of the party.

Pheu Thai’s predecessor was the Thai Rak Thai Party, founded in 1998 by Thaksin.

Since the turn of the century, Thaksin’s Shinawatra clan has produced no less than four Thai prime ministers. Pheu Thai’s latest nominee for prime minister is Srettha, Thaksin’s nephew.

72-year-old Bangkok retiree Pipat was once a die-hard supporter of Pheu Thai and the Shinawatra family, but not anymore.

He told AFP in an interview on the 9th: “I used to really like Thaksin. I really liked the ‘30 Baht Universal Healthcare Scheme’ his government implemented, and I’m still benefiting from that policy today.”

“But why did Thaksin have to flee instead of coming back to face the law? Now he’s bringing his children and nephews into politics, and I don’t agree with that.”

Pipat stated: “I will never vote for Pheu Thai again.”

Traditional Stronghold Wiped Out

Thaksin’s home province, Chiang Mai, one of his traditional strongholds, suffered a devastating blow in this election. Party officials acknowledged that this is the first time in the party’s history that it has lost every seat in Chiang Mai.

Back in the 2000s, Thaksin broke the deadlock in Thai politics: he was the first prime minister to serve a full term, the first to be re-elected via the ballot, and the first leader to win an absolute majority in the legislature. The collapse in electoral momentum today is particularly poignant.

On the night of the 8th, the Pheu Thai party chairman held a press conference at party headquarters to concede defeat, while prime ministerial nominee Srettha did not appear.

Vice chairman Julapan told reporters: “We must respect the voice of the people, and so we accept the result.”

Some are questioning whether this marks the official end of the 20-year “Thaksin dynasty.” However, Pheu Thai may yet join the ruling coalition, offering a chance to make a political comeback.

Chambers, a senior fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, told AFP: “In the coming years, the Thaksin era is over.”

But he quickly cautioned: “In Thailand, nothing is ever truly ‘over’.”

Chambers said the country’s economic growth is currently lackluster, but if the “economy continues to deteriorate” in the future, Pheu Thai might still have a chance for a comeback.

Thaksin was first elected Prime Minister in 2001 with populist pledges that brought prosperity to rural poor communities. In just a few years, he managed to revive the battered Thai economy following the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

However, he was later overthrown in a military coup and went into exile, until 2023, when his party successfully formed a government and he returned to Thailand. That government was subsequently led by his daughter, Paetongtarn.

Last year, Paetongtarn was removed from office by the court over a leaked telephone recording. She was succeeded by Anutin, whose Bhumjaithai Party delivered a stunning victory in the just-concluded weekend election.

Although Anutin has several coalition options (including partnering with Pheu Thai), some analysts believe this is now less likely, given the parties’ previously open hostility, and such a partnership would likely prove unstable.”

"Thaksin is a True Survivor"

Before the vote, some observers predicted that apart from political deals, Thaksin might get an early parole for the one-year corruption sentence he is currently serving.

However, Panjada, a political science professor at Mahidol University, pointed out that with or without a political deal, Thaksin will be eligible for parole as early as May.

She said: “I don’t think this is the end of the Shinawatra family.”

“I don’t think Thaksin will depart from politics—he is a true survivor.”