On the first trading day of the Year of the Dragon, China’s A-shares collectively opened sharply higher, with the three major indices rising more than 1% at the open on the 24th and nearly 5,000 stocks gaining. Bloomberg pointed out that relief from U.S. tariff pressure combined with the domestic AI boom may offset the latest round of AI-driven concerns from Wall Street, allowing China’s stock market to demonstrate resilience.
According to The Paper, the Shanghai Composite Index surged 1.15% to 4,129.13 points in intraday trading on Tuesday, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.52% to 14,313.86 points, and the ChiNext Index jumped 1.7% to 3,331.79 points. Statistics from Wind show that across the two exchanges and the Beijing Stock Exchange, 4,969 companies gained, 306 fell, and 202 were unchanged.
Industrial Securities said that A-shares had already released some risk by following overseas asset adjustments before the Spring Festival; after the holiday, as market risk appetite rises and incremental funds flow in, A-shares are expected to enter a period with a relatively high win rate over the year. Coupled with frequent catalysts at the macroeconomic and industrial levels, the outlook for a new round of post-holiday upside in A-shares is positive.
On the 20th, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled to overturn President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which could reduce tariffs faced by China. Although Trump subsequently announced plans to implement a 15% global unified rate, Morgan Stanley estimates that the average tariff on Chinese goods will drop from 32% to 24%.
So far this year, China’s stock market has lagged behind others worldwide, as regulators have attempted to curb overheating in some areas of the market, including sectors from rockets to AI applications. While these measures have dampened the market’s overall momentum, the sharp rally in media stocks after ByteDance launched its video generation app highlights investors’ enduring willingness to chase AI sector winners.
Another key focus is travel and consumption data collected during the holiday, providing important references for monitoring the consumption strength of the world’s second-largest economy.
Although full holiday consumption may have fallen short of expectations, analysts still expect that the rising enthusiasm for leading domestic AI firms will remain a dominant trading theme in the short term.
Morgan Stanley expects that following the humanoid robot’s attention-grabbing appearance in last week’s Spring Festival Gala, sentiment towards stocks in the Chinese humanoid robot industry chain will remain strong.