The latest report released by the World Trade Organization on the 16th shows that the US tariff policy has led to a severe worsening of the global trade outlook. Under the current tariff situation, the global merchandise trade volume is expected to decrease by 0.2% in 2025, nearly 3% lower than the forecast in a 'low tariff' benchmark scenario. The decline in merchandise trade in North America is particularly significant, with exports expected to fall by 12.6%.
The report predicts that in 2025, trade in the Asian region will achieve moderate growth, with both imports and exports increasing by 1.6%. European region exports are expected to grow by 1.0%, with imports expected to grow by 1.9%. Despite the adjustment due to tariff impacts, these two major regions remain important contributors to global trade growth.
The report states that the broader spillover from US 'reciprocal tariffs' and policy uncertainty poses significant downside risks, possibly leading to a global merchandise trade reduction of up to 1.5% by 2025, affecting the most export-dependent least-developed countries.
The report also makes its first forecast on services trade, predicting that it will also be negatively affected by tariffs. The report forecasts that the global services trade volume will grow by 4% in 2025, about 1% lower than previously anticipated.
World Trade Organization Director-General Iweala expressed deep concern about the uncertainty of trade policies.
She stated that 'reciprocal tariffs' could lead to severe consequences. Ongoing uncertainty may hinder global economic growth and have significant negative impacts on the world, especially on the most vulnerable economies.
Iweala called on WTO members to promote the establishment of a fair competitive environment, simplify decision-making processes, and make corresponding adjustments to better adapt to current realities.