On the 20th, the International Labour Organization (ILO) released a report on generative artificial intelligence and employment, stating that one-quarter of global jobs might be affected by generative AI. However, the most likely outcome is job transformation rather than direct replacement.
The report, titled 'Generative Artificial Intelligence and Employment: A Global Occupation Impact Refined Index,' provides the most detailed assessment to date of how generative AI might reshape global employment patterns.
The report shows that jobs in high-income countries are more likely to be affected by generative AI, with a proportion reaching 34%. As generative AI can theoretically automate various tasks, clerical jobs face the most significant risk. These positions have previously been a means for developing countries to increase female employment, thus making female employment more susceptible to the impact of generative AI.
The report states that as the capabilities of generative AI continue to expand, jobs in highly digitalized fields such as media, software development, and finance are also at increasing risk.
However, complete automation replacement remains limited, as many tasks, even if made more efficient, still require human involvement. Professions accustomed to rapid digital transformation (like software developers) and those with weak digital skills may face very different development paths, with the latter being more negatively impacted.
The report notes that digital transition policies will be a key factor in determining whether workers can remain in jobs affected by AI transformation and how such transformation affects job quality.
The report emphasizes that the study reflects 'potential risks' rather than the actual number of job losses. Differences in technological limitations, infrastructure, and skill reserves mean that situations will vary significantly across different countries and industries.
The report argues that in the labor sector, generative AI is neither inherently good nor bad, and its socio-economic impact largely depends on how the technology's adoption is managed.
The report calls on governments, employers, and workers' organizations to engage in social dialogue and develop proactive and inclusive strategies to enhance productivity and job quality, especially in industries affected by generative AI.