US intelligence reports indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin may launch limited attacks against NATO member states sometime between this fall and 2029, in order to test NATO’s resolve. The report outlines scenarios ranging from cyberattacks to small-scale ground incursions.
The Wall Street Journal reports that US officials previously assessed that Putin would not provoke NATO members while fighting in Ukraine, but that judgment changed earlier this year. As Putin finds himself increasingly in trouble on the Ukrainian battlefield and faces political pressure at home to achieve victory, circumstances have shifted.
According to the report, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian military forces and oil infrastructure have caused increasing damage; the Russian military has suffered heavy casualties, while its progress at the front has slowed to a crawl.
US and European leaders are increasingly seeing signs that Russia is conducting probing attacks to test NATO’s resolve, including Russian cruise missiles crashing into Polish territory and drones straying into Romanian airspace. US officials state that should Putin strike at NATO while the war in Ukraine drags on, his goal would be to undermine NATO.
Heather Conley, a European affairs expert at the conservative think tank American Enterprise Institute (AEI) in Washington, said regarding Russia’s possible invasion: “The question is, once this happens, how the United States will respond. Challenging NATO’s credibility and driving a wedge between America and its allies has always been Russia’s goal.”
Sources reveal that due to Putin’s inability to achieve expected progress in Ukraine, US intelligence officials are continuing to analyze whether Russia intends to escalate attacks on European allies in the short term. US officials worry that if Putin is driven into a corner, he may double down on aggression.
These potential threats include Russian cyberattacks against NATO members, dispatching unmarked armed groups to seize territory, or launching limited incursions along NATO’s eastern flank. According to the US intelligence assessment, Russia could carry out any of these actions between this fall and 2029.
The report notes that the most extreme scenario would be a limited Russian ground invasion of a NATO country. While the probability is currently low, over time the risk is increasing. Such actions were long thought highly unlikely because they would almost certainly trigger NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense mechanism. However, Article 5 does not specifically define how to respond to cyberattacks or hybrid threats.