In 2025, the sovereignty dispute between China and the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea is likely to escalate. CCTV News reported that on New Year's Day, the Chinese Coast Guard vessel Chuanshan entered the waters of the Scarborough Shoal to hold a flag-raising ceremony. CCTV's affiliated new media 'Yuyuantantian' also reported on January 1 that the Chinese Coast Guard recently took off from the Scarborough Shoal with ship-borne helicopters for the first time to conduct maritime search and rescue training.
The report stated: “Accompanied by the first ray of sunrise over the sea in 2025, all law enforcement officers of the Chuanshan ship faced the red flag with the rising sun, holding the first national flag-raising ceremony of the new year. With the rousing and powerful melody of the 'March of the Volunteers,' the coast guard law enforcement officers stood upright, full of spirit and determination, solemnly saluting the national flag. Against the sound of the national anthem, the bright Five-Star Red Flag was slowly raised. Bathed in the sunshine of the new year, it was full of new year hopes.”
Chinese international strategist Yang Xiao pointed out that the Chinese Coast Guard recently conducted helicopter takeoffs and maritime search and rescue training from the Scarborough Shoal, a change that appears minor but actually counters the long-standing 'trap' set by the US and the Philippines in the South China Sea.
Yang Xiao said that a few days ago, a Philippine C208 aircraft “illegally intruded” into China's Scarborough Shoal airspace without permission from the Chinese government. The Chinese Coast Guard closely monitored and lawfully warned and drove it away. Since 2024, a change in the Philippines' tactics in the South China Sea has been a greater emphasis on deploying aerial forces.
Yang Xiao stated that besides using small helicopters, the Philippines would also arrange for drones at the “collision” sites. This newly acquired skill by the Philippines was taught “hand by hand” by the United States. The US military not only conducted “training courses” but also provided them with drone equipment and even sent personnel to the sites.
Apart from frequent Coast Guard actions, on the 29th of last month, the PLA's Southern Theater Command also released news stating that on that day, the Southern Theater Command organized naval and air forces to conduct combat readiness patrols in China's Scarborough Shoal territorial waters, airspace, and surrounding areas.
In this regard, military expert Zhang Junshe said in an interview with the Global Times that the deployment of naval and air forces by the Southern Theater Command was to prevent ships and aircraft from other countries from entering the territorial waters and airspace of the Scarborough Shoal.