On the 19th, the China Strait Research Institute think tank released the "2025 Cross-Strait Relations Risk Index" report, indicating that the current cross-strait risk index has risen to 7.11, a historical high. The year 2024 not only failed to reverse the upward trend but also broke through the critical point of handling cross-strait issues in a "non-peaceful manner," describing the situation as perilous and dangerous.
Extreme Politics in Taiwan Pushing Up Risk
According to China Times news, the "Report" shows that over the past five years, the risk index of relations between mainland China and Taiwan has remained at a historical peak, exceeding the level of the military confrontation period in the 1950s.
The "Report" points out that extreme politics within Taiwan is the core factor driving the increase in this year's risk index. Taiwan's leader Lai Ching-te, in his inaugural speech, extensively discussed "sovereignty" and continued to strengthen cooperation with the United States, leading to a stage of determined confrontation across the strait.
The "Report" also directly states that the possibility of cross-strait peace is being gradually diminished. This is due to Western forces represented by the United States continually intensifying their involvement in the Taiwan Strait issue, including sending senior officials to visit Taiwan or pushing Taiwan-related bills such as the "Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act" and the "Taiwan International Solidarity Act" under the guise of strengthening Taiwan-US relations. The purpose is to use the Taiwan Strait issue as leverage, aiming to contain the rise of mainland China.
The "Report" calls on the public, stating that the cross-strait situation has entered the eve of fundamental changes and that actions to advance unification have begun to accelerate. If the people of Taiwan cannot face the current tense military situation across the strait, Taiwan's future might become similar to the situation in Ukraine today.
However, the "Report" also points out that in 2024, the total trade between the two sides of the strait reached 292.97 billion USD (1.25 trillion MYR), an increase of 9.38% compared to the same period in 2023. In terms of personnel exchanges, 438,212 people from the mainland visited Taiwan in 2024, nearly doubling compared to 2023, and 2,770,284 people traveled from Taiwan to mainland China, an increase of over 50%. These factors all help reduce the risk of cross-strait conflict and deepen peaceful development on both sides.
The "China Strait Research Institute" is a comprehensive private think tank jointly initiated by young scholars from various fields across the strait, and the current chairman is Lei Xiying, a member of the Standing Committee of the National Youth Federation of mainland China.