The United Nations forecasts that the global economic growth rate will decline from 2.8% last year to 2.7% in 2026, then rebound to 2.9% in 2027, but will still remain below the pre-pandemic average of 3.2%.
According to the 'World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026' report released by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs on the 8th, although the significant increase in U.S. tariffs in 2025 has sparked new trade tensions, the impact on international trade is limited due to the absence of a larger-scale escalation.
The report points out: "Despite the tariff shock, global economic activity has demonstrated resilience, thanks to earlier increases in shipments and inventory accumulation, as well as robust consumer spending supported by accommodative monetary policy and generally stable labor markets."
According to the report: "Ongoing macroeconomic policy support is expected to mitigate the impact of tariff hikes, but the growth of trade and overall economic activity may slow in the short term."
The report forecasts that, due to growth momentum being dampened by a weakening labor market, U.S. economic growth in 2026 will remain around 2.0%. Due to U.S. tariff increases and continued geopolitical uncertainty putting pressure on exports, economic growth in the European Union will slow to 1.3% in 2026. A persistently weakening external environment will see Japan's economic growth in 2026 at around 0.9%.
In addition, the report predicts that in 2026, East Asia’s economic growth will be 4.4%, South Asia’s will be 5.6%, Africa’s will be 4.0%, Latin America and the Caribbean will see 2.3% growth, and the Commonwealth of Independent States and Georgia will experience 2.1% growth.
The report calls on countries to strengthen global coordination and collective action amid heightened geopolitical tensions, to address trade realignments, price pressures, and climate shocks, rebuild trust, enhance predictability, and reaffirm commitment to an open, rules-based multilateral trading system.