The International Energy Agency released its latest monthly oil market report on the 14th, lowering its forecast for global oil demand in 2026, projecting an average daily decrease of 80,000 barrels. It is expected that global demand in the second quarter will decline by an average of 1.5 million barrels per day, marking the largest quarterly drop since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Structurally, the decline in oil demand is mainly concentrated in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions, primarily involving products such as naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and jet fuel. The report pointed out that due to tightening supply and high oil prices, the weakening demand trend may further expand.
On the supply side, global oil supply plummeted by about 10.1 million barrels per day in March, falling to an average of 97 million barrels per day. The report noted that ongoing attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and restricted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz have severely hampered global oil supply.
In addition, global oil inventories in March decreased by about 85 million barrels. Inventories outside the Gulf region dropped sharply by 205 million barrels, mainly reflecting the impact of transportation disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Amidst this round of supply shocks, international oil prices in March recorded the largest single-month increase in history. As global oil supply becomes increasingly tight, major oil-importing countries are vying for alternative supplies, with spot crude oil prices in April once soaring to nearly $150 per barrel, significantly higher than futures prices.
The report states that restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is a key factor in alleviating current energy supply tensions, curbing rising oil prices, and easing pressure on the global economy. At present, the prospect for a lasting negotiation-based resolution to the conflict remains unclear. If hostilities persist, risks to energy production and trade in the Middle East will remain elevated.