(China, 27th) — Economists have sharply raised their forecasts for China's import growth, now expecting the country's import growth rate to exceed that of exports for the first time since 2021.
According to the median forecast from a Bloomberg survey of 17 economists this month, as Chinese companies make large purchases of high-end chips needed for artificial intelligence (AI), China’s import growth rate is expected to rise to 5% in 2026, the highest level in five years. This forecast is more than double the estimate made in March and will end four consecutive years of stagnation or decline.
Export growth was also raised, from 3.6% to 4.9%. China’s goods trade surplus is projected to be slightly above US$1.2 trillion (RM4.74 trillion), only marginally higher than the 2025 level after two years of rapid growth.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, a massive influx of Chinese goods into overseas markets has sparked backlash in various countries. In response, the Chinese government has pledged to further open up the domestic market to expand imports, and has gradually rolled out some incremental policies, such as canceling export tax rebates for products like solar cells.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, a massive influx of Chinese goods into overseas markets has sparked backlash in various countries. In response, the Chinese government has pledged to further open up the domestic market to expand imports, and has gradually rolled out some incremental policies, such as canceling export tax rebates for products like solar cells.
However, amid sluggish domestic consumption suppressing demand, it is China’s reliance on cutting-edge AI-related technology that is truly driving faster import growth.
Bloomberg cited Mizuho Securities senior China economist Zhou Min as saying, "The government has already realized that a massive trade surplus is unsustainable."
Zhou Min expects imports to grow by 7.5% this year, partly driven by policy adjustments, but she also pointed out that external sales will remain an important growth engine for the economy. “So far, I have yet to see any clear signs of a recovery in domestic demand.”
Bloomberg cited Mizuho Securities senior China economist Zhou Min as saying, "The government has already realized that a massive trade surplus is unsustainable."
Zhou Min expects imports to grow by 7.5% this year, partly driven by policy adjustments, but she also pointed out that external sales will remain an important growth engine for the economy. “So far, I have yet to see any clear signs of a recovery in domestic demand.”
Despite severe energy shocks caused by the Iran war, China’s trade performance was strong last quarter, prompting economists to swiftly revise some of their forecasts for the Chinese economy.
In the first three months of 2026, China’s imports rose 23% year over year, while exports grew 15%. Despite rapid expansion in industrial production and investment, sustained stagnation in consumption is making China's economy increasingly imbalanced; the International Monetary Fund has noted that such imbalances are exacerbating global economic imbalances.
Bloomberg reported that the unexpected jump in imports in March was largely driven by the global AI investment boom, which spurred demand for chips and advanced manufacturing equipment.
Soaring chip prices are also a contributing factor. According to estimates by Pantheon Macroeconomics, China’s integrated circuit import value surged 54% year-over-year last month, accounting for nearly one-third of total import growth, while import volume rose only 14%.
Research from Standard Chartered Bank economists shows that even though China became the world’s largest supplier of AI-related products last year, in certain key technology areas—particularly advanced chips—China remains a net importer.
On the other hand, last Wednesday (April 22), the U.S. House of Representatives voted to advance the “Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware Act” (MATCH Act) and a series of bipartisan export control bills, indicating that the U.S. Congress is stepping up efforts to close loopholes and block the flow of AI technologies to China.
In a statement issued last Wednesday on its official website, the House Foreign Affairs Committee said the MATCH Act will address one of the most pressing issues currently facing the United States: limiting China’s access to critical equipment and components needed to manufacture advanced chips.
On top of the current comprehensive ban on EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography machines to China, the bill also includes comprehensive restrictions on equipment such as immersion DUV (deep ultraviolet) lithography machines; meanwhile, the bill requires U.S. allies including the Netherlands and Japan to implement equivalent controls within 150 days.
Representative Michael Baumgartner, who led the introduction of the bill, said, “The U.S. cannot allow any more backdoors to remain open for China to obtain the tools needed to leap ahead in semiconductor manufacturing.”