Hong Kong Film Awards Predictions: Louis Koo and Tony Leung Ka Fai Hot Picks for Best Actor, Rachel Leung Leads Best Actress Race

The 44th Hong Kong Film Awards will be held this Sunday (April 19th) night. This year’s race is unusually close, especially in the Best Film, Best Actor, and Best Actress categories—none have a runaway favorite. Judging from results in early awards, artist polls, and industry trends, this year’s awards are arguably the hardest to predict in recent years.

This year’s Best Actor contest is particularly intense. Louis Koo is doubly nominated for “Detective vs. Sleuths” and “A Step into the Past”, making him one of the front-runners. Tony Leung Ka Fai is also seen as a strong contender for his layered portrayal of a villain in “Shadow Chaser”. During interviews last year, he candidly shared that the role allowed him to experience the mindset of a “lonely old man,” resulting in a performance that is restrained yet highly powerful.

Another focus is Louis Cheung, who trained for two years in boxing and spent eight years bringing “The Goldfinger” to the screen—demonstrating impressive dedication. He told Shin Min Daily News that making this film was “something I had to complete before turning 40,” and even invested his own money in the production. This deep personal investment gives him significant “dark horse” potential in the Best Actor category.

Carlos Chan, lead actor in “Love Lies”, is not a Best Actor hot favorite, but his performance has won recognition from many. He once remarked in an interview that his biggest challenge during filming was not the nudity, but the “emotional nakedness” due to his character’s long-term self-repression. This delicately handled performance ensures his presence among strong competitors.

As for Best Actress, Rachel Leung is currently in the lead. Her role as a woman with cerebral palsy in “Love Lies” required high difficulty and presented rich layers, helping her win the Critics Society Best Actress award in advance. Zhang Ziyi, meanwhile, showcases a restrained yet explosive acting style in “Poisoned Justice”, a steady approach familiar to judges.

Fala Chen stands out with her portrayal of a mentally unstable character in “Dream Redemption”, which should not be underestimated either. First-time Best Actress nominee Louise Wong is recognized for her work in “The Thumbless Woman”. She told Shin Min Daily News that she visited patients, practiced wheelchair operation thoroughly, and carefully depicted changes in the medical condition in order to get her role right. Although she is a rookie and unlikely to win, the nomination itself is seen as a significant achievement.

For Best Film, “Goodbye UFO” is considered the top favorite. Its delicate portrayal of the golden era of Hong Kong nostalgia appeals to the judges’ preferences.

Meanwhile, “Mad Fate” leads with 12 nominations, boasting scale and production quality. “A Step into the Past” is valued for being a collective memory spanning over 25 years, gaining substantial support—and a strong showing in artist polls.

Original animated film “Deep End” has both strong box office and word of mouth, and has been recognized at various international film festivals. Director Ng Kai-chung told Shin Min Daily News last year that his work is “a realistic animation made for adults,” showcasing a creative vision distinct from mainstream commercial films.

For Best Supporting Actor, veteran performer Alex To, who makes a rare acting appearance in “Mad Fate” with a commanding presence, is favored to win his first Hong Kong Film Award. Yuen Fu Wah in “Queen of Dumplings” and Chan Charm Man in “UFO: The Bizarre Case” show strength in subtlety and rhythm, respectively, but hold slightly less momentum.

For Best Supporting Actress, Cecilia So of “Goodbye UFO” delivers a nuanced performance. Given the overall strength of the film, she is seen as having a better chance compared to her powerhouse opponents like Kara Wai in “Queen of Dumplings” and Bau Hei Jing in “Mad Fate”.

For Best New Director, Shu Qi’s performance in “The Girl” stands out, garnering recognition at both international film festivals and early award ceremonies. This is described as one of the most certain wins of the night.

The “44th Hong Kong Film Awards” red carpet Star Avenue will be broadcast live on Singtel Entertainment Urban Channel 101 and 825 from 4:30pm to 7pm this Sunday, with the awards ceremony live from 7:30pm to 10:30pm.