UBS economists expect China's GDP growth to slow to 4.5% in 2026. They also anticipate a slowdown in export growth next year; the downturn in real estate will persist but the decline will narrow; consumption will maintain moderate growth but the growth rate will ease slightly.
According to comprehensive reports by HK01 and Hong Kong Economic Times, Zhang Ning, Senior China Economist at UBS Investment Bank, stated that under the baseline forecast, China's real GDP growth rate is expected to moderate to 4.5% in 2026. In addition, export growth is expected to slow next year, and the contribution of net exports to growth in 2026 may be significantly smaller than in 2025.
Zhang Ning also expects the real estate downturn to continue, but with a narrower decline. Consumption will maintain moderate growth but the growth rate will ease slightly. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment, after a marked weakening in the second half of 2025, may turn to moderate recovery. The consumer price index (CPI) growth rate may rebound to 0.4% next year, and the decline in the producer price index (PPI) will narrow.
UBS expects that as export growth slows and the real estate downturn continues, the government will maintain moderate policy support in 2026. The fiscal deficit ratio is expected to expand slightly by about 1% in 2026. The central bank is projected to further cut interest rates by 0.20% by the end of 2026, lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.25 to 0.50%, and use other tools to keep liquidity ample.
The proposals for the "15th Five-Year Plan" make boosting consumption a top priority, but UBS believes the intensity of policy support in 2026 will likely remain moderate and be introduced gradually. Anti-involution initiatives are expected to be integrated into the building of a "national unified market"; there will be an emphasis on deepening two-way openness; efforts to reduce carbon emission intensity will continue.