The Asian Development Bank (ADB) released a report on the 30th, forecasting China's economic growth rate this year to be 4.7%, slightly below Beijing's target growth rate of around 5%; growth is expected to slow to 4.3% next year.
On the 30th, ADB released the September edition of the 2025 Asian Development Outlook, estimating China's economic growth rate for this year at 4.7%, consistent with its April forecast; it projects next year's growth will decelerate to 4.3%. The Chinese government set this year's economic growth target at around 5% in its work report, and ADB's prediction is comparatively lower.
According to the report, expansionary fiscal policy, robust industrial activity, and strong exports drove China's GDP to outperform expectations in the first half of the year. However, a deteriorating external environment, continued weakness in the real estate market, sluggish growth in household income, and lackluster consumption will weigh on growth from the second half of this year into next year.
● Real Estate Sector Presents Challenges
Qima, Chief Representative of the ADB's Resident Mission in China, stated that the real estate sector and tightening foreign trade tensions pose challenges to China's economic growth, and it is only under the support of expansionary fiscal and targeted subsidy policies that growth momentum could be maintained.
Qima believes that since external uncertainties may suppress demand for China's exports, continuously boosting domestic consumption will be crucial for sustaining economic growth.
The report predicts China's inflation rate will be 0% this year and 0.4% in 2026, both revised downward from the April forecast. This reflects persistently falling domestic food prices and weak domestic demand. Looking ahead, the global trade environment and policy uncertainties pose challenges for China's economic growth outlook.