After Chinese President Xi Jinping issued a stern warning on the Taiwan issue during the 'Xi-Trump Summit,' U.S. President Donald Trump, in an interview with American media, cautioned Taiwan against moving toward independence, emphasizing that he does not want anyone to provoke a war by assuming the U.S. would back Taiwanese independence. He stated that the U.S. policy toward Taiwan remains unchanged, but openly regarded arms sales to Taiwan as a bargaining chip in negotiations, increasing the transactional and uncertain nature of the U.S. Taiwan policy.
In the Thursday (May 14) briefing issued by the White House after the end of the Xi-Trump Summit, not a word was mentioned about Taiwan. However, Trump made two separate statements regarding Taiwan in media interviews. His interview with Fox News aired on Friday (the 15th). On the same day, during the return trip to the U.S., he spoke again to the media about the Taiwan issue aboard Air Force One.
Trump’s remark about “not wanting anyone to move toward independence” is seen as aligning with what Beijing hopes to see—namely, a reaffirmation of not supporting Taiwanese independence, or even a stance close to opposing it. In a news release published on Friday night by Xinhua, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that China perceives the U.S. as “not agreeing with or accepting Taiwan’s move toward independence.”
Trump made his comments after attending a welcome banquet hosted by the Chinese side on Thursday, during which he was interviewed by Fox News. He said that he and Xi Jinping discussed the Taiwan issue “the whole night,” and that, having known Xi for 11 or 12 years, “Taiwan has always been his (Xi's) top concern.” Trump also said that Beijing is not seeking to take over Taiwan but does not want to see Taiwan move toward independence, otherwise Beijing “might do some very tough things.”
He reiterated that U.S. policy toward Taiwan remains unchanged, hopes to maintain the status quo, and warned that Taiwan moving toward independence is “a very dangerous thing.” He emphasized he does not want anyone to trigger Taiwanese independence on the assumption that America will back them up: “We would have to fly 9,500 miles to fight a war; I don’t want that. I hope they calm down. I hope China calms down.” Trump also implied China would take no action toward Taiwan while he remained in office, but after his term, “I think they might (act).”
Differing from previous U.S. presidents, Trump seldom openly declared that arms sales to Taiwan would be used as a bargaining chip with Beijing. Aboard Air Force One, he again told the media he would soon decide whether to approve $14 billion (about 55.3 billion Malaysian ringgit) in arms sales to Taiwan after discussions with those “who manage Taiwan.” He revealed he made no commitments to Xi Jinping on the Taiwan issue; Xi had asked whether the U.S. would intervene to help Taiwan if conflict broke out in the Taiwan Strait, and Trump did not give a direct answer—essentially maintaining the principle of strategic ambiguity.
In response to Trump’s comments about Taiwan, the spokesman for Taiwan’s Presidential Office, Kuo Ya-hui, said on Saturday that maintaining the cross-strait status quo has always been President Lai Ching-te’s position, and reiterated that “the Republic of China is a sovereign and independent democratic country” and that Beijing has no right to assert claims over Taiwan. She stated that arms sales between Taiwan and the U.S. are clearly stipulated in the Taiwan Relations Act and that America’s security commitment to Taiwan is also a mutual deterrent to regional threats.
The spokesman for Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Jeff Liu, also responded on Friday night, saying that the close cooperation between Taiwan and the U.S. has always been the cornerstone of peace in the Taiwan Strait, and that Taiwan will continue to firmly defend the regional status quo and build an effective deterrent force.
Professor Emeritus Ting Shu-fan of National Chengchi University’s Institute of East Asian Studies analyzed to Lianhe Zaobao that, from Taiwan’s perspective, Trump’s warning to Taiwan against pursuing independence may cause concerns that Trump has been persuaded by Xi Jinping to believe that Lai Ching-te is promoting Taiwanese independence. But the key, he says, is: What is the definition of ‘Taiwanese independence?’ He believes Beijing is attempting to seize control of the discourse, “as long as you don’t advocate unification, you are all for independence.”
Ting Shu-fan also considers Trump’s statements contradictory—in one breath he wants to maintain the status quo, in another he talks to Xi Jinping about arms sales to Taiwan, and even treats these arms sales as bargaining chips, effectively ending the ‘Six Assurances’ established during the Reagan administration. Trump says he would decide whether to approve arms sales after talking with ‘those who manage Taiwan’—if this means Lai Ching-te, it would break the precedent that sitting U.S. presidents do not contact the Taiwanese president.
Given Trump’s consistent position that allies and partners should increase defense spending, Tin expects that Trump will still approve the arms sales, though possibly delaying it to next year to avoid affecting a potential “second Xi-Trump summit,” and by using the arms sales as a bargaining chip, it seems to tie Taiwan’s hands, but actually also checks the mainland: “What bigger bargaining chips can you offer me in return?”
As to whether Trump is using such transactional tactics to keep both sides in check and ensure peace in the Taiwan Strait, Ting Shu-fan thinks it remains to be seen, but from the mainland’s perspective, U.S. arms sales to Taiwan will definitely test what is called “constructive strategic stability” between China and the U.S.
Professor Zhu Feng, Dean of the School of International Relations at Nanjing University, analyzed that from Trump’s remarks, the Taiwan issue has become “an important point of joint management for controlling escalation of conflicts between China and the U.S.,” which is a positive signal for the mainland.
However, he evaluates that there won’t be substantive change in U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, since U.S. Congress, think tanks, and anti-China forces will have opposing views, and Trump, facing midterm elections, would also find it hard to make concessions to Beijing on arms sales. This will be a test of the framework of “constructive strategic stability” in China-U.S. relations. Whether categories and scale of arms sold can be adjusted may become a key discussion in the two leaders’ next meeting.
Drew Thompson, Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, observed that though Xi Jinping’s proposal of “constructive strategic stability” may provide a reference framework for Beijing’s policy-making, it will not have any impact on how Washington makes or implements policy.
He said that stability is the only concept on which both China and the U.S. can agree, “but as to what promotes stability or undermines stability, both sides are not in agreement.”
Differing from previous U.S. presidents, Trump seldom openly declared that arms sales to Taiwan would be used as a bargaining chip with Beijing. Aboard Air Force One, he again told the media he would soon decide whether to approve $14 billion (about 55.3 billion Malaysian ringgit) in arms sales to Taiwan after discussions with those “who manage Taiwan.” He revealed he made no commitments to Xi Jinping on the Taiwan issue; Xi had asked whether the U.S. would intervene to help Taiwan if conflict broke out in the Taiwan Strait, and Trump did not give a direct answer—essentially maintaining the principle of strategic ambiguity.
In response to Trump’s comments about Taiwan, the spokesman for Taiwan’s Presidential Office, Kuo Ya-hui, said on Saturday that maintaining the cross-strait status quo has always been President Lai Ching-te’s position, and reiterated that “the Republic of China is a sovereign and independent democratic country” and that Beijing has no right to assert claims over Taiwan. She stated that arms sales between Taiwan and the U.S. are clearly stipulated in the Taiwan Relations Act and that America’s security commitment to Taiwan is also a mutual deterrent to regional threats.
The spokesman for Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Jeff Liu, also responded on Friday night, saying that the close cooperation between Taiwan and the U.S. has always been the cornerstone of peace in the Taiwan Strait, and that Taiwan will continue to firmly defend the regional status quo and build an effective deterrent force.
Professor Emeritus Ting Shu-fan of National Chengchi University’s Institute of East Asian Studies analyzed to Lianhe Zaobao that, from Taiwan’s perspective, Trump’s warning to Taiwan against pursuing independence may cause concerns that Trump has been persuaded by Xi Jinping to believe that Lai Ching-te is promoting Taiwanese independence. But the key, he says, is: What is the definition of ‘Taiwanese independence?’ He believes Beijing is attempting to seize control of the discourse, “as long as you don’t advocate unification, you are all for independence.”
Ting Shu-fan also considers Trump’s statements contradictory—in one breath he wants to maintain the status quo, in another he talks to Xi Jinping about arms sales to Taiwan, and even treats these arms sales as bargaining chips, effectively ending the ‘Six Assurances’ established during the Reagan administration. Trump says he would decide whether to approve arms sales after talking with ‘those who manage Taiwan’—if this means Lai Ching-te, it would break the precedent that sitting U.S. presidents do not contact the Taiwanese president.
Given Trump’s consistent position that allies and partners should increase defense spending, Tin expects that Trump will still approve the arms sales, though possibly delaying it to next year to avoid affecting a potential “second Xi-Trump summit,” and by using the arms sales as a bargaining chip, it seems to tie Taiwan’s hands, but actually also checks the mainland: “What bigger bargaining chips can you offer me in return?”
As to whether Trump is using such transactional tactics to keep both sides in check and ensure peace in the Taiwan Strait, Ting Shu-fan thinks it remains to be seen, but from the mainland’s perspective, U.S. arms sales to Taiwan will definitely test what is called “constructive strategic stability” between China and the U.S.
Professor Zhu Feng, Dean of the School of International Relations at Nanjing University, analyzed that from Trump’s remarks, the Taiwan issue has become “an important point of joint management for controlling escalation of conflicts between China and the U.S.,” which is a positive signal for the mainland.
However, he evaluates that there won’t be substantive change in U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, since U.S. Congress, think tanks, and anti-China forces will have opposing views, and Trump, facing midterm elections, would also find it hard to make concessions to Beijing on arms sales. This will be a test of the framework of “constructive strategic stability” in China-U.S. relations. Whether categories and scale of arms sold can be adjusted may become a key discussion in the two leaders’ next meeting.
Drew Thompson, Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, observed that though Xi Jinping’s proposal of “constructive strategic stability” may provide a reference framework for Beijing’s policy-making, it will not have any impact on how Washington makes or implements policy.
He said that stability is the only concept on which both China and the U.S. can agree, “but as to what promotes stability or undermines stability, both sides are not in agreement.”