On the 8th, Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said in a speech at the Milken Institute, a nonprofit think tank in Washington, D.C., that the global economy is better than expected, but has not reached the “desired level.” "The resilience of the global economy has not yet been fully tested, and there are worrying signs that the real test may be coming soon."
Georgieva stated that the world is currently undergoing profound changes. Changes in geopolitical factors, technological revolution, demographic structure, and increasingly severe human-caused harm to the earth have led to "a sharp and sustained rise in global uncertainty."
She believes that “uncertainty has become the new normal and will continue.”
Georgieva said that the full impact of tariff policies “has yet to be revealed.” In the United States, squeezed corporate profits may push prices higher, bringing new inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, a large number of goods originally destined for the U.S. market are being diverted to other countries, which could trigger "a second round of tariff increases."
She thinks that the loose financial environment has masked “underlying weakness.” “Once valuations experience major corrections, tighter financial conditions will drag down global economic growth and make conditions especially difficult for developing countries.”
She stated that although global trade is currently disturbed, most of it is still conducted according to established rules.
She called on all countries to maintain the role of trade as the engine of economic growth.
In its July World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund forecasted global GDP growth of 3% for this year, a slowdown compared to 2024. The organization will update its economic growth forecast at the annual meeting to be held in Washington from the 13th to 18th.