缅甸人民先锋党党魁德德凯(中)圣诞节当天在仰光参加一场竞选集会。据缅媒早前报道,德德凯因违反选举法,已被取消候选人资格。
缅甸人民先锋党党魁德德凯(中)圣诞节当天在仰光参加一场竞选集会。据缅媒早前报道,德德凯因违反选举法,已被取消候选人资格。

Myanmar to Hold Third Phase of Voting at End of January, Observers Doubt Stable Government Formation

Published at Dec 27, 2025 10:41 am
(Yangon, 27th) Myanmar's military government announced on Friday (December 26) that the third phase of nationwide elections will be held on January 25, 2026. However, this election, which has been split into multiple phases, has been controversial from the outset, with widespread doubts about its fairness and representativeness.

The first round of voting is scheduled for this coming Sunday (28th), covering 102 out of Myanmar's 330 townships, including all districts of the capital Naypyidaw, about a quarter of the largest city Yangon, and a small portion of areas controlled by anti-military ethnic armed groups (known as EAOs). The second round of voting will take place on January 11 next year in about another 100 townships.

The Union Election Commission announced in a statement on Thursday (25th) that the third round of voting will be held on January 25 in 63 townships.

The caretaker government has not yet revealed when official election results will be announced. Acting President Min Aung Hlaing previously stated that due to the ongoing civil war, the election would be conducted in phases.

Min Aung Hlaing said that the upcoming election marks a return to democracy and provides an opportunity for anti-military armed forces to achieve peace. However, democratic watchdog groups have pointed out that the list of candidates consists mostly of individuals carefully selected by the military.

In addition, the military government has warned that protesters or critics of the election could face up to 10 years in prison. This move has not only sparked domestic backlash but has also raised serious concerns in the international community about Myanmar’s political trajectory and prospects for democracy.

Myanmar observers and diplomats say that the country remains mired in civil war, and a military-controlled government dressed in civilian clothing is unlikely to gain international recognition and support. Therefore, the military’s goal of establishing a stable government may be difficult to achieve.

Richard Horsey, senior adviser for Myanmar affairs at the International Crisis Group, said, "A new round of indirect military rule does nothing to resolve armed conflict or civilian resistance—Myanmar will remain stuck deep in crisis."

Independent Myanmar analyst Mattheison said, "The military is incapable of any substantive change, and will only engage in superficial gestures. These changes won't threaten the core interests of their centralized control."

Ye Myo Hein, senior research fellow at the Southeast Asia Peace Research Institute, believes that elections manipulated by the military not only fail to stabilize the national situation, but may in fact exacerbate violence and cannot bring lasting political or economic stability.

State media Myanmar Global New Light published a commentary on Friday calling on observers not to judge the upcoming Myanmar election based on Western standards, but to recognize the current political situation in the country. "They fail to realize that, for ordinary people, this election, though flawed, is a way out of the state of emergency and a route back to a rule-of-law framework."

Analysts point out that this election is an attempt by Min Aung Hlaing and his close associates to seek international legitimacy. However, Thailand’s Foreign Ministry said last month that due to the lack of necessary inclusive dialogue in Myanmar’s election, ASEAN would find it difficult to restore ties with the country.

Author

联合日报新闻室


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