India's political policy think tank "National Transformation Commission" CEO Subramanian, citing data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), pointed out that India has surpassed Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy and is expected to soon surpass Germany to become the third largest. He also stated that the current overall geopolitical and economic environment is favorable for India.
Indian media reported that on the 25th, Subramanian, at a press conference after the 10th NITI Aayog Governance Council meeting, said: "At this moment, we are already the fourth largest economy. Our economy has reached 4 trillion USD (16.93 trillion MYR), and this is not my own data, it is IMF's data. India has surpassed Japan today."
Subramanian also predicted that if India continues to maintain its current plans, it will surpass Germany to become the world's third-largest economy in another two and a half to three years.
The data he quoted is from the IMF's "World Economic Outlook" report released in April and the IMF's official website, which suggests India has overtaken Japan. However, the IMF stated that India's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) this year will reach 4.187 trillion USD (17.72 trillion MYR), while Japan's will be 4.186 trillion USD (17.72 trillion MYR), which may not be as Subramanian believes, that India has already surpassed Japan.
The IMF report also predicts that India's economic growth rate for 2025 and 2026 will be 6.2%, although lower than the previously forecasted 6.5% due to intensified trade tensions and global uncertainties, it remains the only country expected to have a growth rate exceeding 6% in the next two years.
This rapid growth is expected to push India's GDP to reach 5.584 trillion USD (23.64 trillion MYR) in 2028, surpassing Germany to become the third-largest economy.
As for Germany, its expected economic growth rates for this year and next year are zero and 0.9%, respectively. The country is also expected to be one of the European countries most affected by the ongoing global trade war. It is anticipated that in 2028, its GDP will reach 5.251 trillion USD (22.23 trillion MYR). Japan is also expected to be impacted by the trade war, with its economic growth rates expected to remain at 0.6% for this year and next.
The United States remains the world's largest economy, with a GDP expected to reach 30.507 trillion USD (129.14 trillion MYR) this year, but with a growth rate slowing to 1.8%, and to 1.7% next year. China is the second largest globally, with a GDP expected to be 19.231 trillion USD (81.41 trillion MYR) this year.
According to IMF data, India's per capita income has doubled from 1,438 USD (6,087 MYR) in 2013-14 to 2,880 USD (12,100 MYR) this year.