KUALA LUMPUR, May 16 — Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) acknowledges the need to revise the gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2025 amid the global economic uncertainty, but prefers to avoid making revisions based on assumptions, said BNM governor Datuk Seri Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour.
He explained that the central bank wants to base its forecasts on solid foundations to ensure credibility.
“We want to have solid grounds before coming out with a credible forecast for the year. This is important because we don't want to revise it today, only to change it again tomorrow,” he said.
Abdul Rasheed added that frequent revisions could create further uncertainty for businesses.
“This may not be healthy or positive for businesses, as it would add further uncertainty to the already heightened uncertain environment,” he told a press conference after announcing the first quarter 2025 (1Q 2025) GDP performance here today.
Abdul Rasheed said the GDP revision will take time as BNM needs to gain clarity on certain current data and the outcomes of ongoing negotiations during the United States tariffs 90-day pause.
He said that in light of the heightened trade tensions and global policy uncertainties, growth for 2025 is expected to be slightly lower than the 4.5-5.5 per cent forecast range announced in March.
Additionally, he emphasised that multilateral institutions have also revised their growth forecast for Malaysia slightly lower. For example, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecast from 4.7 per cent to 4.1 per cent.
“While we do have an internal view, the global environment is still very fluid – trade negotiations are still ongoing and the outcomes remain uncertain, although we have seen positive outcomes, this can affect our outlook.
“As we get more clarity on the outcomes of the ongoing trade negotiations, we will finalise the new forecast and announce it in one or two months time,” he said.
Abdul Rasheed said it is important to note the positive developments surrounding global trade negotiations in recent weeks and if this continues, it will bode well for the global and Malaysian economy.