In the past month, many regions across China have shown a trend of COVID-19 resurgence. Data from the China CDC indicates that the positive test rate in southern provinces is higher than that in northern provinces. However, some experts believe that the current COVID-19 wave is about to reach its peak and will not last long.
Hong Kong 01 reports that on May 8, the China CDC released data indicating that in April, the positive rate of COVID-19 tests across mainland China showed an upward trend, with southern provinces having a higher positive rate than northern provinces, although the increase has slowed in some provinces where the positivity rate had risen earlier.
Regarding nucleic acid test positivity rates, the outpatient and emergency influenza-like cases for COVID-19 rose from 7.5% in week 14 (March 31-April 6) to 16.2% in week 18 (April 28-May 4), while hospitalized cases with severe acute respiratory infections increased from 3.3% in week 14 to 6.3% in week 18.
Regionally, by week 18, COVID-19 has ranked first in detection rates among outpatient and emergency influenza-like cases in both the north and south. From an age perspective, by week 18, the highest positive detection rate for COVID-19 was observed in the age group 15 years and above.
In Hong Kong, a similar trend is observed, with the current prevalent strain being the XDV strain. In May last year, the China CDC first mentioned the XDV variant strain in a national COVID-19 infection situation report, which subdivided the previously monitored JN.1 variant into XDV and 47 other sub-lineages, with XDV being separately named and recorded. Around July last year, the XDV variant had become the dominant strain at the time. However, the latest data does not indicate that XDV causes more severe diseases than JN.1.
Additionally, on Monday (May 12), Beijing Chaoyang District CDC stated that the current activity of the COVID-19 virus in that area is on the rise but has not surpassed the peak of 2024. The predominant strain is the NB.1 series, mainly a new branch of the XDV variant.
Chinese virology expert Chang Rongshan stated that the NB.1 series might become the prevalent strain in the future. Nonetheless, its pathogenicity continues to decline compared to previous strains and is not expected to cause more severe diseases than the JN.1 variant, and hospitalization numbers will not exceed those during the JN.1 dominance.
Chang Rongshan further explained that the current COVID-19 resurgence might be due to two reasons. Since December 2022, there has been overlapping epidemics of COVID-19 and influenza in China. Since March 2023, the intensity of the COVID-19 wave has generally been lower than that of influenza, but the interval pattern has disappeared. In February 2025, China experienced the smallest nationwide influenza epidemic in three years, leading to a decline in herd immunity and creating opportunities for a COVID-19 resurgence. Also, more than a year has passed since the last wave (December 2023 to January 2024), and the natural infection-generated COVID-19 antibody protection in the population has almost waned.
However, Chang Rongshan believes the current COVID-19 wave is approaching its peak and will not last long, with mid-May being the peak period. By June 5, the COVID-19 positive rate among influenza-like cases in sentinel hospitals nationwide is expected to drop to around 8-10%. It is anticipated that by mid to late June, the COVID-19 positive rate among influenza-like cases in nationwide sentinel hospitals will fall to 5% or below.
Chang Rongshan recommends wearing masks and frequently washing hands in crowded places, especially for individuals who have been infected multiple times with COVID-19, those with severe symptoms during past infections, and chronic disease patients with low immunity. If sensitive populations become infected again, it is advisable to take oral anti-COVID-19 medication within 48 hours to alleviate symptoms and reduce the risks of COVID-19 pneumonia and long COVID. (Hong Kong 01)