The World Trade Organization released quarterly data on the 15th showing that, due to expectations of increased US tariffs, global goods trade saw robust growth in the first quarter of this year but is expected to slow in subsequent periods as higher tariffs are implemented.
The WTO stated that in the first quarter, global goods trade grew 3.6% compared to the previous quarter, and 5.3% year-on-year, exceeding earlier WTO forecasts. The main reason is that expectations of higher US tariffs led to a sharp increase in North American imports, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 13.4%—much higher than in other regions.
By product category, global trade in office and telecommunications equipment grew 16% year-on-year in the first quarter, outpacing other major product groups; chemical products and apparel followed, with trade volumes up 12% and 7% year-on-year respectively. Trade in automotive products, fuels and mineral products, and iron and steel saw declines.
However, WTO economists expect that, as inventory levels become saturated and US tariff increases put pressure on import demand, global trade growth will slow later this year.
The WTO said some trade data from major economies in the second quarter indicate that import demand began to slow after the surge in the first quarter. For example, US imports grew 25% year-on-year in the first quarter, but in the first two months of the second quarter, they increased by only 1%.
On April 16, the WTO forecast that global goods trade volume would decline by 0.2% this year. On the 15th, the WTO said that subsequent trade developments have caused slight fluctuations in the forecast, and as of mid-June, the prediction for full-year goods trade growth had been revised to a mild increase of 0.1%.