After Visiting China, Then India and Sri Lanka Instead of Russia or the US: Does To Lam’s Travel Trajectory Signal a New Chapter in Vietnam’s Diplomacy?

(Hanoi, 25th) — After officially assuming the role of Vietnamese President, Communist Party General Secretary To Lam embarked on a series of diplomatic activities, drawing attention to the direction of Vietnam’s foreign policy. After the customary “first trip to China,” To Lam then visited India and Sri Lanka, rather than Russia—which has long held close ties with Vietnam. The US also has not yet appeared on his itinerary.

Interviewed scholars noted that many factors determine the order of To Lam’s visits and that this should not be seen as a change in Vietnam’s diplomatic line. Hanoi will continue its “bamboo diplomacy” while building friendships and pragmatically managing relations with different partners.

On May 6, To Lam met with Indian Prime Minister Modi in New Delhi. Both sides agreed to elevate Vietnam-India bilateral relations to an “Enhanced Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” and plan to expand cooperation across multiple fields.

Le Hong Hiep, Senior Fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, told Lianhe Zaobao this shows India’s rising stature in Vietnam’s diplomacy, especially in defense and economic cooperation.

Le Hong Hiep pointed out that the India-Vietnam relationship “long ago surpassed mere statements.” India is considering providing Vietnam with long-range BrahMos cruise missiles, has consistently assisted with training Vietnamese naval personnel, and has offered lines of credit for Vietnamese defense procurement.

This is particularly important to Hanoi, since the Russia-Ukraine war exposed risks in Vietnam’s long-term reliance on Russian weaponry. “India is among the few partners with both the political will and geographic conditions to help Vietnam build deterrence capabilities in the South China Sea.”

Economic cooperation is another major factor elevating the Vietnam-India relationship. Le Hong Hiep said that against the backdrop of US tariff hikes, supply chain disruptions, and the drive to reduce dependency on Chinese manufacturing, strengthening Vietnam-India trade and investment ties has become even more important. There remains significant potential for further economic cooperation between the two sides.

However, this does not mean that Russia is no longer important to Vietnam.

Le Hong Hiep believes that reading too much political signal simply from the order of foreign visits “may be a stretch.” He notes that To Lam visited Russia last year, and former Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh traveled to Moscow at the end of March this year. The two sides signed a cooperation agreement for the Ninh Thuan 1 nuclear power plant and discussed long-term arrangements for oil and gas supplies.

“In other words, Vietnam-Russia relations are always carefully managed at the top level and remain very important to Hanoi.”

Vu Xuan Khang, visiting scholar in political science at Boston College in the US, also said that both India and Russia are comprehensive strategic partners of Vietnam, and “who comes first or second is really not much different”—it’s more likely related to logistical arrangements.

As for when To Lam will visit the US, in fact, after assuming the position of General Secretary in January, he went to the US in February to attend the first meeting of the Gaza Peace Committee and met US President Trump at the White House.

However, although Vietnam values its relations with the US, at this stage it has limited bargaining chips with which to further improve bilateral ties.

Carl Thayer, Emeritus Professor of Political Science at the University of New South Wales in Australia, pointed out in an interview that while Vietnam and the US have resumed talks under the framework of a “mutually beneficial, fair and balanced trade agreement,” multiple obstacles remain.

“These include the US's classification of Vietnam as a ‘non-market economy,’ Vietnam’s growing trade surplus with the US, and new tariffs imposed by the US on goods rerouted from China, among other issues.”

In this context, China’s importance to Vietnam has become even more prominent. According to Vu Xuan Khang, To Lam’s immediate post-inauguration trip to China helped balance his earlier US visit. “This reflects how Vietnam always maintains careful balance when handling US-China relations.”

Thayer believes that by consolidating ties with China ahead of a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Vietnam pulled off a shrewd diplomatic move. “Vietnam seizes opportunities while upholding principles of autonomy, peaceful development, and multipolar/multilateral relations.”

No Change to Diplomatic Strategy, Advancing International Integration

Though the order of To Lam’s international visits may be unexpected, scholars generally believe Vietnam’s overall diplomatic direction has not fundamentally changed.

Vu Xuan Khang noted that newly inaugurated Vietnamese leaders usually visit China first, since China has long provided ideological support to Vietnam’s Communist Party and values Vietnam’s political stability.

“Only if, in the future, Vietnam’s leaders begin their terms with visits to the US or other Western countries—rather than China—can it truly be said that Vietnam’s ‘bamboo diplomacy’ has fundamentally changed.”

Facing the current international climate, To Lam’s government not only values relationships with partner nations but also actively advances international integration while maintaining strategic autonomy.

Thayer said: “Hanoi is readjusting its relationships with all comprehensive strategic partners, but at its core, the principles of self-reliance, peaceful development, and diversification/multilateralism remain unchanged.”