The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released its latest economic outlook report on the 26th, forecasting global economic growth of 2.9% in 2026, with a slight rebound to 3.0% in 2027.
The report points out that uncertainty in the Middle East poses a test to global economic resilience. If energy prices remain high for an extended period, it will significantly increase business costs, push up inflation levels, and drag down the prospects for global economic growth.
According to the report, before the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, the global economy had generally remained resilient, with strong investment and production activity related to artificial intelligence technology, combined with fiscal policy support, keeping economic activity vibrant. After the escalation of conflict, however, soaring energy prices and increased uncertainty have pushed up costs and suppressed demand, to some extent offsetting the previous momentum supporting economic activity.
The report forecasts that U.S. economic growth will slow from 2.0% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027. Dragged down by high energy prices, eurozone economic growth is expected to drop to 0.8% in 2026, but then rebound to 1.2% in 2027 driven by increased defense spending.
On inflation, driven by surging energy prices and supply chain disruptions, medium-term inflation expectations have risen. It is expected that the Group of Twenty (G20) nations will see an inflation rate 1.2 percentage points higher than previously forecast, reaching 4.0% in 2026. This is projected to ease to 2.7% in 2027 as energy price pressures subside. The core inflation rate of G20 advanced economies is projected to fall from 2.6% in 2026 to 2.3% in 2027.
The report states that global economic prospects currently face significant uncertainty. The above forecast figures are based on the assumption that global energy supply disruptions will gradually ease after mid-2026. If Middle East exports continue to be hindered, energy prices could rise further, exacerbating shortages of key commodities, thereby pushing up inflation and suppressing growth.
The report emphasizes that against the backdrop of energy price shocks, central banks must remain vigilant, ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored, and adjust monetary policy flexibly when necessary. Fiscal measures should be precisely targeted for relief, maintain debt sustainability, and at the same time improve expenditure efficiency and revenue capacity; financial regulation should be strengthened to guard against overvaluation and risk transmission; easing trade tensions can boost growth certainty, and export restrictions that could deepen inflation should be avoided. In the medium to long term, improving energy efficiency and reducing dependence on fossil fuel imports should be key priorities to strengthen economic resilience and alleviate cost pressures.